Border Battle MSU vs Wisconsin

Who: Those stinking Badgers!
Where: Breslin, 7pm.
TV/Radio: ESPN/94.9


Badger Bits

• Bo Ryan is an enemy of the State.
• Bo Ryan and Tom Izzo are the two longest reigning coaches of the Big Ten.
• Bo Ryan hates your freedom.
• Wisconsin is ranked 5th according to KenPom
• Bo Ryan once sent a guy to dunk on his own mother because she didn't call him for a couple of weeks.
• Wisconsin leads the nation in tall white men 3 point shooting percentage. True fact.

Bo Ryan's coaching style was developed when he was locked in a cabin out in the woods from when he graduated college in 1969 until landing a job with the University of Wisconsin as an assistant in 1976. During those seven years, he was in complete seclusion excepting for the occasional trip into town for some beers, some laughs and the occasional tuggle. He had only one piece of media for his entertainment and coaching study and it was this film.

Very quick character break: This is actually really cool. I'd love to watch some of these for State.

Ryan sold his soul to the devil sometime in 2001 when he accepted the job as the Head Coach at Wisconsin. He has spent his time since blowing up kittens and electrocuting puppies.

My partner in crime, Ty, writes a series for his blog The Lions In Winter called the Watchtower. The watchtower takes the statistical tendencies of Offensive and Defensive coordinators and pits them against each other. Of all the teams in the Big Ten, there are not two teams more well-suited for this kind of review. I'd love to do it using some KenPom magic, but, alas, I do not get paid until friday. Screw it, Wisconsin hate is a special kind of hate.

Advanced KenPom Analysis

We have moar green on our screen than Wisconsin does on theirs. So that's nice. 

Keys to Victory for MSU

• Score more than 60 points
• Get transition baskets
• Don't let the white guys kill you with three balls.
• Don't let Wisconsin out rebound you too badly.
• Bring a gun to this knife fight.

Keys to Victory for Wisconsin

• Be aware of how much time is on the clock. ZING!
• Stop MSU's transition baskets
• Score more than 60 points
• Get some white guy three-ballin' action.
• Summon your inner Satan, Bo Ryan.

Very Rudimentary KenPom Analysis

MSU's one trouble area is that they turn the ball over on offense at 20.5% clip, which is good for 9th in the Big Ten. As luck would have it Wisconsin is the worst in the conference at forcing turnovers at 15.2%. Anytime you're worse than Nebraska basketball at something, you're pretty bad.

Wisconsin ranks 10th in the conference at shooting the three so the whole Wisky three-ballin' their way back into the game looks like less of an issue than usual. MSU is also defending the three really well holding their opponents to 27.9 percent from 3pt land.

Finally, MSU is just monstrous on the boards this year checking in at 1st and 3rd in the Big Ten on offense and defense respectively.  Wisconsin checks in at 7th and 5th on offense and defense rebounding.

Summary

Two typical strengths of Wisconsin are atypically weak for Wisconsin this year and more of a strength for MSU than usual this year. Where MSU struggles in turning the ball over, Wisconsin is super craptabulous at forcing turnovers. I had originally and lazily predicted a four point victory, but on paper I had no idea how absolutely well MSU is playing.Now I am predictiing incorrectly based off of KenPom data a nine point victory.

Prediction: MSU 58 Wisconsin 49.

Huge, huge dap to the Mrs. She chopped both these pics and had a teething and crying baby on her back most of the time it was happening. My wife is the most capable human being alive.

Update: 12:32 PM. The Mrs. has added a pic for OneFreeFitz in the comment section below.

Bo in the sunlight!