The Spartans have received their first commitment for the 2013 class in the form of Gerald Holmes, a running back from Flint, Michigan. Holmes is very much under-the-radar, at this point. None of the recruiting sites have rated him, yet, and he only has offers from Central Michigan and Toledo. The only other data available on Holmes is about his size. He is approximately 6 feet tall and weighs about 200 lbs, which suggests that Holmes is slated to become the successor to Larry Caper or Le'Veon Bell.
In fact, there are moments in his high school video highlights when Holmes looks a little like Caper and a little like Bell. Here's Bell as a senior in high school (unable to embed video, unfortunately), and here's Caper as a senior in high school:
And here's Holmes' as a junior in high school:
We can see that Holmes is not quite as big as either Bell or Caper, yet. In his senior year Bell was listed as approximately 6'2" and 215-220 lbs (currently he is listed as 6'2" and 237 lbs.) and Caper was listed as 5'11" and 215-220 lbs (currently he is listed as 5'11" and 223 lbs.). But Holmes is only a junior in high school, so it's quite possible that he could grow a little taller and that he could add some weight in the next 6 months or so before he enters his senior year.
In the videos we can also see that Holmes is probably in between Bell and Caper in terms of speed. He looks faster than Bell but not quite as fast as Caper. When you consider that guys like Monty Madaris and MacGarrett Kings looked a little faster in their senior year highlights relative to their junior year highlights, it's possible that Holmes could get closer to playing at Caper's speed by his senior year. Of course, we'll have to wait for Holmes' senior year highlights to come out before we can re-examine his speed.
We can also see that in terms of power, Holmes runs more like Bell. He doesn't get brought down by arm tackles and there are even moments where he tries to hit tacklers before they hit him (check out 1:37). Holmes is not yet as punishing a runner as Bell; in Bell's video we can see that many tacklers just bounced off of him and in many cases they just get out of the way. But Holmes is pretty physical. Holmes also moves a little like Bell. He has a similar array of moves, including a nice spin move (at about 0:50).
One concern I have about Holmes is that in a lot of the highlights he's running outside the tackles, kind of like Larry Caper. In the Big Ten he'll find he doesn't have the speed to do that -- perhaps even Caper is struggling with that. A bigger concern may be that we can't tell if Holmes can do all the little things well, the way Bell was able to do right away as a freshman. As the video below points out, Bell was able to contribute right away because he was good at running, catching, and blocking. I should note, though, that Holmes does make some nice catches and blocks in his highlights. But it's hard to know from highlight videos if he can do everything consistently well.
So the upshot is that there's a lot to like about Holmes. There is a good possibility that he could end up around the same size as Caper and perhaps even Bell, and there is a good possibility that he'll end up slightly less speedy and agile than Caper. If so, he should eventually end up with at least 3 stars and perhaps even move up to 4-star territory. On the other hand, there is always the possibility that he could struggle to add size and speed, and that would pretty much mean that he ends up a 2-star recruit.
So now the Spartans have recruited 3 running backs in the last year, and I wouldn't be surprised to see them go after another big back. They are well stocked with the smaller, quicker running backs (Nick Hill, Nick Tompkins, Marcus Horne), but they'll be losing Larry Caper this year and Le'Veon Bell the next year (if he doesn't leave early for the draft). The only big back they have coming in is Holmes, so adding one more big back could be in the offing.
In fact, there are moments in his high school video highlights when Holmes looks a little like Caper and a little like Bell. Here's Bell as a senior in high school (unable to embed video, unfortunately), and here's Caper as a senior in high school:
And here's Holmes' as a junior in high school:
We can see that Holmes is not quite as big as either Bell or Caper, yet. In his senior year Bell was listed as approximately 6'2" and 215-220 lbs (currently he is listed as 6'2" and 237 lbs.) and Caper was listed as 5'11" and 215-220 lbs (currently he is listed as 5'11" and 223 lbs.). But Holmes is only a junior in high school, so it's quite possible that he could grow a little taller and that he could add some weight in the next 6 months or so before he enters his senior year.
In the videos we can also see that Holmes is probably in between Bell and Caper in terms of speed. He looks faster than Bell but not quite as fast as Caper. When you consider that guys like Monty Madaris and MacGarrett Kings looked a little faster in their senior year highlights relative to their junior year highlights, it's possible that Holmes could get closer to playing at Caper's speed by his senior year. Of course, we'll have to wait for Holmes' senior year highlights to come out before we can re-examine his speed.
We can also see that in terms of power, Holmes runs more like Bell. He doesn't get brought down by arm tackles and there are even moments where he tries to hit tacklers before they hit him (check out 1:37). Holmes is not yet as punishing a runner as Bell; in Bell's video we can see that many tacklers just bounced off of him and in many cases they just get out of the way. But Holmes is pretty physical. Holmes also moves a little like Bell. He has a similar array of moves, including a nice spin move (at about 0:50).
One concern I have about Holmes is that in a lot of the highlights he's running outside the tackles, kind of like Larry Caper. In the Big Ten he'll find he doesn't have the speed to do that -- perhaps even Caper is struggling with that. A bigger concern may be that we can't tell if Holmes can do all the little things well, the way Bell was able to do right away as a freshman. As the video below points out, Bell was able to contribute right away because he was good at running, catching, and blocking. I should note, though, that Holmes does make some nice catches and blocks in his highlights. But it's hard to know from highlight videos if he can do everything consistently well.
So the upshot is that there's a lot to like about Holmes. There is a good possibility that he could end up around the same size as Caper and perhaps even Bell, and there is a good possibility that he'll end up slightly less speedy and agile than Caper. If so, he should eventually end up with at least 3 stars and perhaps even move up to 4-star territory. On the other hand, there is always the possibility that he could struggle to add size and speed, and that would pretty much mean that he ends up a 2-star recruit.
So now the Spartans have recruited 3 running backs in the last year, and I wouldn't be surprised to see them go after another big back. They are well stocked with the smaller, quicker running backs (Nick Hill, Nick Tompkins, Marcus Horne), but they'll be losing Larry Caper this year and Le'Veon Bell the next year (if he doesn't leave early for the draft). The only big back they have coming in is Holmes, so adding one more big back could be in the offing.
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