MSU - Wisconsin: We Don't Need a Rivalry Trophy

It was a very long and quiet ride home last night. My friends and I pulled into town said our goodbyes at 5:00 am and went to bed. I woke up this morning and the weather was dingy and gray which of course did not instantly improve the mood. Caffeine on a mainline was a move in the right direction, but still, slow going. The BCS is a disaster as usual, featuring a game no one wants to see, as usual. It's really hard to feel good, great or even morally victorous about the game I watched last night. Yet, I do feel those things in fits and starts.

When the Bielema presser opened last night, his first comment was: "I was reading a lot about how Michigan State was preparing for the Rose Bowl, we were just preparing for Michigan State." Honestly, I could understand Bielema's confusion since he hadn't actually won the Big Ten outright before, he might not know what happens next. ZING! I was mildly concerned about this after reading Dantonio put roses in the player's lockers on Friday. MSU didn't look past Wisconsin though anymore that Wisconsin looked past them. These two teams are the best two teams in the Big Ten and in my opinion it isn't even close.

Since Mark Dantonio and Bret Bielema started playing each other the average margin of victory has been 5.2 points per game.  Dantonio has shown no qualms about rolling out the old cliche, "Football is a game of inches" basically every ten minutes for the past few years. This rivalry is an excellent example of that cliche and this game was an excellent example of this rivalry. Between both MSU and Wisconsin, there were probably a dozen plays where less than a foot made the difference between who wins the Stagg trophy and who goes to the Outback Bowl.

To get into game theory in this post feels wrong, except for the much maligned punt block call. Several people on Twitter were gnashing their teeth over the stupidity of this call. To me, you couldn't have called that any differently. Mark Dantonio is not in the business of playing not to lose games, he's in the business of winning them. You don't win games by not trusting your best players to make plays. The play didn't work, but it was the right call.

The goals of Michigan State Football should be in this order: 1.) Play in and win the Rose Bowl. 2.) Everything else. After 12 games, 58 minutes and 27 seconds Goal Number 1 finally eluded our grasp. Now it is time to begin preparing for Goal Number 2, beating our bowl opponent and getting the Bowl Win monkey off our back. On January 3rd, we can begin preparing for the 2012 season's Rose Bowl.

This game is a real rivalry and I fully support Bielema's notion to create a trophy. If I were feeling cockier this morning, I'd say you could skip a new trophy though, because the Stagg one works just fine. If 2007, 2008, 2010 and 2011 parts one and two are indicative of the next ten years of MSU-Wisconsin football, this rivalry is not going away and you will be treated to some of the best football games a person can watch in the coming years. Luckily our road to next year's Rose Bowl runs through Madison and if MSU gets to deliver a little payback on it's way, I'll be happy to watch.

Quick Meta Note: I gots me lots of catch-up to do in areas of life not related to College Football Blogging. Updates will be pretty sparse until after December 22nd when I'm off for the rest of the year. When we come back, we'll have probably another Wisky film review, a preview with our Bowl Opponent. Until then, it's going to be pretty random what goes on the blog. Follow us on twitter by banging the link to the right for more microbloggy updates.

Game Preview: Wisconsin (Again)

Film Review: Here

Well we're about to play Wisconsin, again. We're not favored to win, again. It's not even expected to be close, again. Beating someone twice in a year is really damn hard. Yet, I feel optimistic about this game. Mark Dantonio can be accused of many things but backing down from a real fight is not one of them.

Respect

We do not garner the respect of the Badger fans, and despite what the Badger team is saying to the media, this is a revenge game. When QB Russell Wilson was asked why he chose Wisconsin over other schools, he replied that he felt this school gave him the best opportunity to win a national title. Then the Badgers roll into East Lansing and get beat by some SPECIAL teams play and a fluky Hail Mary pass. According to them anyway. This is a revenge game and being dishonest about that is in my opinion disrespectful.

Further, in an article from Monday from the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel it was reported that in the secondary ticket market (Stubhub specifically) that thirty-seven percent of the tickets were being bought from Michigan while a scant fourteen percent were being bought from Wisconsin. This implies a couple things that may be true. First, Wisconsin fans are not snapping up tickets because they feel their Rose Bowl berth is an eventuality. Second, Wisconsin fans are staying home because they're national title hopes were torpedoed in East Lansing a few months ago. Maybe both? It doesn't really matter. They're not coming and MSU fans are because they respect their own team and Wisconsin's team. I think the role of underdog coupled with good MSU fan turnout will be a plus for MSU.

Home Team

The Home Team of this game has won the last seven meetings. While this is not a typical home game for MSU the above evidence of ticket purchasing in the secondary ticket market leans towards this being an MSU favorable game. This is not the critical piece that will win MSU this game, but it will help.

An Interesting Sidebar

The matchup of this game will undoubtedly be MSU's Defense vs. Wisconsin's Offense. Interestingly, two candidates rumored to be the forerunners to replace the Zooker (no one can truly replace him) are MSU Defensive Coordinator Pat Narduzzi and Wisconsin Offensive Coordinator Paul Chryst. Chryst is currently denying the rumors, but Narduzzi has remained mum on the subject. 

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Wisconsin's Passing Offense vs MSU Passing Defense

The Michigan State defense will face it's toughest aerial test since they played Wisconsin in October. In case you haven't heard Wilson is on pace to break the NCAA passing efficiency record. Moreover, his last interception came in the fourth quarter of the Michigan State game in October. In the Michigan State game in October Wilson threw two interceptions. In the remainder of Wisconsin's season, he threw just one pick in the other eleven games. 

In the match-up round one, MSU sacked Wilson twice and hurried him an additional five times. Wilson threw two picks. You can easily say this was Wilson's worst game of the season despite the fact he was 14/21 for 223, 2 TDs and 2 picks. He also didn't have a pass hit the ground until 8:33 left in the third quarter. 

How will this round be different?

Wisconsin's All-American center Peter Konz is either out or playing hobbled this weekend and backup Ryan Groy has not looked ready in relief. Further, William Gholston will be in the house this weekend. What has made our defense special this year is that Worthy + Gholston is too much for five OL to handle. 

A concern in the other direction is that Dennard did a very nice job limiting Abbrederis' YAC in Round One and Dennard is coming back from injury this week. Lippett has looked decent in relief, but he is not as sure a tackler. Nick Toon was also coming back from an injury in round one and is totally healthy now. 

All in all, I expect a similar performance from Wilson throwing a pick or two on Saturday and because of MSU rushing Wilson into bad throws.

Advantage: MSU(Slight)

Key Matchup: Jerel Worthy vs. Interior Wisconsin line

Wisconsin's Rushing Offense vs MSU Rushing Defense

The Michigan State defense will face it's toughest rushing test since getting annihilated by Nebraska in late October. I suspect after watching MSU play Nebraska that Wisconsin will wheel out some elements that worked particularly for Nebraska. Montee Ball also will probably not get his bell rung midway through the second quarter and have only five carries in the second half. James White seems to be a quality back, he's like .85 LeVeon Bell, who is of course our BEST running back. In order to slow down this rushing attack our best bet honestly is to put the clamps on Wilson and force them to run more. 

MSU has held it's Big Ten opponents 75 yards below their average rushing yardage per game in 2011. That's ridiculous. However, they merely held Wisconsin 26 yards below their average in round one. Again, the return of Gholston could be critical here in couple with the loss of Konz. Ball has improved throughout the year and Wilson hardly ran at all in round one. In my opinion this will continue to be an advantage for the Badgers, the Badgers always run the ball well. Always.

How will this round be different?

It probably won't. Ball carried only five times after getting his bell rung in round one, but averaged 9.4 ypc on those runs. White 3.8 per carry which was a yard or so below his season average. Wisconsin will gash MSU's defense on the ground. MSU will need to keep the bleeding reasonable and hold Wisconsin to their season average or below.

If Worthy and Pickelman can crash the interior line, this could get ugly quick.

Advantage: Badgers

Key Matchup: Montee Ball vs MSU Linebackers

MSU's Passing Attack vs Wisconsin's Passing Defense

Kirk Cousins career numbers against Wisconsin are: 62.7 percent passing for 760 yards with 8 TDs and 3 picks and he's always had a positive turnover margin. If you take out the 2009 game when he wasn't even the full-time starter yet, those numbers improve to 70 percent passing for 559, 6 TDs and 2 picks. Kirk Cousins shows up ready to play against Wisconsin. Honestly, I think he knows how to get those Badgers. 

From the receivers perspective, Keshawn Martin is healthier than he was during round one and I believe we only lost Dion Sims from the receiver corps. All in all, I like MSU to be better in the passing game than in October.

Advantage: MSU

Key Matchup: Kirk Cousins vs the Badger secondary.

MSU's Rushing Attack vs Wisconsin's Rushing Defense

MSU's run game has really started to gel in the past few weeks. It still will not be a strength for MSU, but it's not the weakness it was even back when MSU played Wisconsin in October. Bell will do a good job poking holes in the defense for Baker to later run through when they're a little more tired. I expect MSU to do a workmanlike job running the ball, but Roushar will be ready to put the ball in Cousins very capable hands at the first sign of distress.

Advantage: Badgers

Key Matchup: LeVeon Bell vs Chris Borland

Special Teams

I promise you the following, we will not block a punt for a touchdown and block a field goal to keep three points off the board. That's straight up a ten point swing that MSU will have to generate through better offense and defense. If I'm wrong, excellent, but that second quarter was pretty much the best quarter of Special Team play I have ever seen in round one. 

Statistically speaking, their punter gets better yards per punt 41-39. Although I'd suspect Sadler's net average is lower. Muma gets a touchback 22 percent of the time vs 11 for Welch. Keshawn Martin averages 12 yards a punt return to Abbrederis' 17. (Note: Don't kick to Abbrederis if avoidable). Nick Hill averages 25 yards per kick return to Abbrederis' 23. The Badgers Philip Welch is 4/5 on FG for the year vs Conroy's 14/19. Which like, 5 FGA attempted, maybe the Badgers offense really is good.

Advantage: Push

Key Matchup: Mike Sadler vs Jared Abbrebrreerderrddderis

Coaching

I have been on a one-man Bielema is a crappy coach rant all year long. That doesn't change here. If he is winning though, he won't be afraid to rub our noses in it. That would suck.

Advantage: Mark Dantonio

Overall

I think these teams are pretty much even despite what the national media would say. This entire game is strength on strength. Whoever wins the point of attack between the Offensive and Defensive lines, wins. I think it is absolutely that simple and cliche. I believe the intangibles favor Michigan State, but obviously they're impossible to measure. Oustide of the special teams play, I think the blueprint for a very similar game between both teams is likely. 

MSU in my opinion has the superior coach.  Earlier this year, I wrote a piece asking the question if Ferentz had Mark Dantonio figured out? With a victory this weekend I might pose the same question of Dantonio and Bielema. 

Prediction: See you in Pasadena

Big Ten Honors

Big Ten honors were bequeathed tonight to the football players who best represented the finest traditions of Big Ten football. Michigan State took home awards for the following players.

Joel Foreman (Offensive Guard) - First Team Big Ten
Jerel Worthy (Defensive Tackle) - First Team Big Ten (Coaches)
Johnny Adams (Cornerback) - First Team Big Ten
Trenton Robinson (Safety) - First Team Big Ten(Media)


If you want to be First Team Big Ten, your first name needs to start with J. I have my eye on you Jairus Jones, with a J in the first and last name position I expect great things from you.

Second Team Big Ten

Kirk Cousins (Future Senator) - Second Team Big Ten (Coaches)
B.J. Cunningham (Wide Receiver) - Second Team Big Ten (Both)
Brian Linthicum (Tight End) - Second Team Big Ten (Coaches)
Will Gholston (Defensive End) - Second Team Big Ten (Both)
Max Bullough (Mike) - Second Team Big Ten (Both)
Denicos Allen (Star) - Second Team Big Ten (Media)
Isaiah Lewis (Safety) - Second Team Big Ten(Both)

Wow, that's a lot of MSU football players in the spot of All Big Ten Second Team. If you have to get the split vote, I'd rather it be from the Coaches than the media. Sorry Denicos, please don't sneak into my house and sack me in my sleep tonight.  All defensive players are sophmores. Haha 2012 opponents.

Honorable Mention

Dan Conroy (Kicker)
Darqueze Dennard (Corner)
Chris McDonald (Offensive Guard)
Chris Norman (Will)
Kevin Pickelman (Defensive Tackle)
Marcus Rush (Defensive End)

So, in case you were curious, all of the Big Ten coaches wouldn't mind coaching our defensive players. Bielema doesn't want to have our defensive players, but that's only because his IQ is less than his shoe size. In 2012, we return everyone but Pickelman, Trenton Robinson and probably Worthy. So our defense is plainly something to be feared unless of course they play Russell Wilson and the Merry Band of National Title Also-Rans.

Congrats to these Spartans on all of their accolades. May they serve you well on Saturday.

Big Ten Division Champs Season Statistical Review

In case you haven't heard MSU plays Wisconsin in the first Big Ten title game next Saturday at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. Before we really delve into Hate Week over the next few days let's step back and look at the stats for the season. The stats are going to be important because the storyline of this game is reading as MSU stole the game from Wisconsin in October. So this is the post where we step back and look at the aggregate for the season and see just how hot the water will be on Saturday.

Season Records At A Glance


Well that's pretty even Steven. We lost an extra game to a ranked opponent but we also played an extra ranked team. So in short, swap out Notre Dame for a Bielema cuppycake and we're 2-1 against ranked opponents too.

Rushing Stats At A Glance


Wisconsin is clearly a better rushing team than MSU. This should be no surprise either. Montee Ball would have already won the Heisman if he played in the SEC. He is on pace to break Barry Sanders single season rushing touchdown records. In losses, both teams fall relatively apart in the rushing game. In a loss Wisconsin goes from averaging 4 rushing touchdowns a game to 1.5 and from averaging 5.81 yards per carry to 4.41. In losses, MSU goes from averaging 3.92 yards per carry to 2.45 and has scored zero rushing touchdowns.
Passing Stats At A Glance


The passing game of Kirk Cousins and Russell Wilson are not really comparable in terms of the stat sheet. Wilson has a 28-3 TD to Int ratio with his last interception being thrown to Isaiah Lewis in the second half of the MSU-Wisconsin game. Since then he's had a totally clean sheet. Wilson is on pace to shatter the NCAA record for passing efficiency set by Colt Brennan of Hawaii at 180.6. Wilson's rating of 192.9 looks like he is a lock to win that record. Wilson averages out to 2.33 TDs and .25 picks per game while Cousins averages out to 1.75 TDs and .5 picks per game. In short, both quarterbacks take excellent care of the ball.
Defensive Stats At A Glance


Well, this also shouldn't come as a surprise. While Michigan State and Wisconsin only have a difference of .25 ppg in total scoring defense. MSU is far more dominant in the passing game defense accumulating an additional 15 sacks, 21 QB hurries and 2 interceptions. (BTW, did you know MSU picked off Russell Wilson twice?). Despite all that, Wisconsin has yielded only 9 passing touchdowns this year. The two teams look pretty evenly matched in running defense, MSU yields fewer yards per game, but Wisconsin edges out MSU in the other rushing defense categories. In short I think MSU's passing defense is slightly better than Wisconsin's and the rushing defense is more or less equal.

So how David and Goliath is this match-up? Think of it like this. If MSU's Offense is a 6, Wisconsin's is a 9 on a scale of 1 to 10. If MSU's defense is a 9, Wisconsin's is an 8. Given the season so far.  Some remarkable factors as it relates to the MSU-Wisky Round One game. Wisconsin yielded 1/3 of their TOTAL passing touchdowns for the year in that game. Russell Wilson threw 2/3rds of his interceptions for the year in that game.  MSU certainly has it's work cut out for it.