Showing posts with label Kirk Cousins. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Kirk Cousins. Show all posts

Tuesday, February 21, 2012

Film Review Outback Bowl: 4 Offensive Questions

This is part two of our Outback Bowl Film Review. You can read part one of our review here and Heck's fantastic film review over on The Only Colors.

1.) Senator Cousins threw seven picks in thirteen games and three from the start of the fourth quarter in the Outback Bowl. What happened?

Well, the obvious suggestion would be that he was pressing, although he threw the first pick down only 16-14 with 11:21 left in the game. The way MSU's season went most games were only half over at this point.

Cousins Pick 1

MSU lines up in the shotgun and Georgia lines up in their 3-4 and shows blitz from the defense left or a slightly delayed blitz from defense right. The blitz ends up coming from the area in yellow. This is probably as good a job as Georgia did masking the blitz all day.
The play snaps and the defense right starts dropping back into coverage while two blockers on the left come completely unblocked. Obviously, Cousins is all "Oh Balls!". The left side of MSU's offensive line was expecting the blitz to come from the defense right and so they're left with no one to block.
Bell can't block both defenders, I mean he probably could if he was all hulked out and pissed like he is in the first quarter. Seriously, he can't block both guys. Foreman isn't blocking anyone, but doesn't look around to see if the blitz is coming from the other side.
Bell picks his poison, but ultimately he was just trying to make Cousins feel better about the fact that he had less than two seconds to get rid of this ball. Cousins is about to get smeared by number 19.
He throws the ball to what looks like a B.J. Cunningham who is in single coverage and has gotten himself some separation.
But the safety makes a great play and jumps the route and runs the other way with the ball. Which sucks.


Cousins Pick 2

MSU lines up in a Two Tight End I formation. Georgia has got nine in the box. MANBALL is about to ensue. right? RIGHT?
Wrong. The play snaps in some "Oh sir, you've bested me with your trickeration" fashion, Linthicum and Sims take off on verticals downfield. Cunningham runs a wheel route past the sticks.
Both Tight Ends are deep into the secondary and it looks like here comes another catch on Linthicum's already amazing 115 yard day.
I means seriously, Linthicum is stupid open. Except Alec Ogletree does his best Woodson imitation and leaps up in the air to tip a ball that he really had no business getting to.
He tips it down and it's a Fat Guy Interception. I'd try to screencap it, but the glory of a Fat Guy Interception is not meant to be beheld by viewing instrument less ornate than that of the simple human eye.

 Cousins Pick 3
MSU is in it's 5 WR package and Georgia lines up in a 3-4 Over. The blitz comes from defense right this time. The corner actually gets sent on a corner blitz, but because he's a few yards off the line of scrimmage it comes as an unblocked but slightly delayed blitz.
The play snaps and he begins his attack.
He's still coming while his friends are trying to kill Kirk. Note, if Keshawn Martin, WR at the top-right of the screen cuts his route short there's a good chance this isn't a pick.  Number 9(also top-right) is in man coverage on Cunningham. He still would have been short of the sticks but would have had a great chance to make a play.
Bell is open out in the flat but Cousins heard all of you guys screaming at him in the first half and knows that he should not throw short of the sticks.

Nichol is open way downfield, but Cousins got pressured into a bad throw and throws to his most reliable target, Cunningham.



2.) Nichol touchdown.

MSU lines up in a 5 WR shotgun set. Georgia lines up in it's 3-4. Georgia is guarding the endzone fiercely as evidenced by the three deep safeties right on the goal line.
The play snaps and Georgia brings four, the remaining four that are up on the line pick a man and drop into coverage.
The red represents the actual routes run by the Wide Receivers. In a moment you'll see this was obviously a designed clearout for Nichol from the outset.
Here the yellow routes are what MSU ran and the red routes are what the respective routes by Georgia defense was. The concern that Keshawn Martin caused for the Georgia D is what allowed Nichol to get open. Martin ran right at the deep middle safety and dragged both the safety and his linebacker into double coverage. Cunningham who ran the quick out, had the job of taking his guy out of the play, which left Nichol in single coverage in the endzone. Nichol can outmuscle a safety because even his muscles have muscles.




3.) Safety Play

Keshawn Martin has the red line over him. He is about to be safetied for safety's sake.
The blitz is coming from the area in yellow. That is a lot of blitzing. Sugar jets!
The play snaps and Cunningham starts on his route. The red route was the route he ran, the yellow route would have probably prevented a safety. It would have caused Boykins to square himself in the wrong direction, which would have given Martin time to at least get out of the endzone.
Instead Martin catches the ball two yards behind the goal line. ROUSHAR ALIEN HYPOTHESIS COMES NOW: If Martin can slip the tackle on Boykins, this is a minimum of a 40 yard gain. Likely six points. Number 9, Ogletree in the middle of your screen has a good angle, but is an inside linebacker and is likely not going to beat Martin in a footrace. Your next best angle belongs to All-American Safety Shawn Williams. Alas, instead of a well-disguised home run ball, Georgia gets two points.
I only bring this picture up because I want to show how hard Martin got hit. He's like three inches short of breaking the plane and doesn't make it out.
In fact, he got hit so hard he got knocked clean backwards for another yard loss on top of that. So that sucked.

4.) Brian Linthicum catches a 50 yard pass to set up the tying Touchdown.


Two things happened on this play that made all the difference. Georgia sent six on the blitz and it didn't get home. Thing number two is that in the still above, Linthicum had not yet caught the ball and Travis Jackson was a few yards downfield. I'm not saying that's an illegal man downfield, I'm just saying maybe be a bit more careful about that in the future.


I really wanted to do a workup on how and why Linthicum had 7 grabs for 115 and what gave him that success in this game. Unfortunately,  there really wasn't a typical play to chart on the matter. 115/7 is 16.3 yards per grab. He had two catches in the neighborhood of that a 17 yard pass from Cousins and an 18 yard pass from Martin, but his other catches were for -1,3,23,50 and 5 yards. So his day seemed to be largely feast or famine so it's difficult to use that as a framework to describe the whole day.



5.) I can't make this BieLOLema up.




I swore those were the Dr. Dre's Beats, but instead they're Bose. And as every audiophile jokes, "No highs, no lows, it's Bose". Crappy headphones and a pair of Officer Barbrady aviators. That's bi-winning!

Summation

Prior to the Outback Bowl all I heard from a couple of the Georgia bloggers that I follow is how afraid MSU should be of Georgia's D. It's absolutely true, their defense was excellent in getting Cousins to turn the ball over three times for the first and only time in 2011 and holding Bell to his lowest YPC of the season. For as much as I made reference in the MSU D vs UGA O post about how well MSU's D played, UGA's D did an equally impressive job.

The Offense as a result had kind of a feast or famine day and Dan Roushar got to wheel out his inner OC alien which always makes the denizens of Zerfgnax happy. In rewatching this game, we are going to miss Kirk Cousins next year. In spite of having a poor game, he had the poise and confidence to get in there and win MSU the game. People who think Maxwell will be an immediate upgrade will be lucky if they're right, as will we, the fans.

This is a great building block win for going into 2012. Georgia was a young and talented team who got the jump on MSU early and couldn't quite hang in there to close out the game. MSU beat a team when the two teams were on equal footing. It was a great way to close out the career for so many deserving seniors and set up our future seniors for their bowl game success.

Friday, January 27, 2012

Spartans Headed To The League

As many of you are already aware, this could be the Spartans' best draft performance in recent memory.  So I have decided to begin providing a weekly update on ABDFF of how various Spartans are doing in relation to the NFL draft.  Folks, these are exciting times.  The NFL draft process is young and there is already a lot of good news about the Spartans. Let's start with a list of Spartan seniors and early departures.


42            Todd Anderson        FB            6-2           265          SR            Napoleon, Mich. - Napoleon
85            Garrett Celek          TE            6-5           252          SR            Cincinnati, Ohio - LaSalle
8              Kirk Cousins             QB           6-3           205          SR            Holland, Mich. - Holland Christian
3              B.J. Cunningham     WR          6-2           215          SR            Westerville, Ohio - Westerville South
67            Joel Foreman          OG           6-4           315          SR            Highland, Mich. - Milford
88            Brian Linthicum      TE            6-5           245          SR            St. Louis, Mo. - Clemson
82            Keshawn Martin     WR          5-11         189          SR            Inkster, Mich. - John Glenn
75            Jared McGaha         OL            6-6           298          SR            Powell, Tenn. - Powell
7              Keith Nichol            WR          6-2           220          SR            Lowell, Mich. - Oklahoma
69            Blake Pacheco         DL            6-1           264          SR            Salinas, Calif. - Monterey (Calif.) Peninsula College
96            Kevin Pickelman      NT           6-4           288          SR            Marshall, Mich. - Marshall
73            Arthur Ray Jr.          OG           6-3           299          SR            Chicago, Ill. - Mount Carmel
39            Trenton Robinson   S              5-10         195          SR            Bay City, Mich. - Bay City Central
16            Chris D. Rucker        WR          5-9           178          SR            Detroit, Mich. - Detroit Country Day
20            Kyle Selden             P              6-5           199          SR            Waterford, Mich. - Our Lady of the Lakes
47            Adam Setterbo       FB            6-3           245          SR            Spring Lake, Mich. - Spring Lake Senior
81            Brad Sonntag          WR          5-8           176          SR            Saginaw, Mich. - Nouvel Catholic Central
57            Johnathan Strayhorn               DT            6-0           272          SR            Detroit, Mich. - Oak Park
4              Edwin Baker            RB           5-9           210          JR            Highland Park, Mich. - Oak Park
99            Jerel Worthy           DT            6-3           310          JR            Huber Heights, Ohio – Wayne


So far, most of the news is about the seniors.  And you would expect that since we have all these "senior-related" events going on: the Senior Bowl, the East-West Shrine game, and NFLPA Collegiate Bowl.

Nevertheless, let me just just briefly start with Jerel Worthy.  As everyone knows, Worthy has been considered a first-round pick most of the year.  He's still considered a first-rounder by most mock drafts.  But at one point, guys like ESPN's Todd McShay had him going in the top 15, and now most mock drafts seem to have him going in the bottom half of the first round.  I think that once the NFL Scouting Combines get going, Worthy will get his chance to impress and move up into the top 15.

Then we have Kirk Cousins, who seems to be making a big splash at the Senior Bowl camp.  About a week or two ago, Mel Kiper Jr. was suggesting that Cousins could go by about the 5th round of the NFL draft.  Now we're hearing people (like Sporting News' Russ Lande) talk about Cousins going as high as the 2nd round.  That's crazy!  Oh no it isn't.  I've said it before, Cousins has played at times like a first-rounder -- particularly during the B1G championship game -- and it was only a matter of time before others saw what Spartan fans saw this year.  If Cousins does end up going in the second round, don't be surprised to see a significant boost in MSU's quarterback recruiting, as soon as next year.

Then there's BJ Cunningham.  In case you missed his touchdown at the East-West Shrine game, here it is.  Other than that, there's not much else...except if you think it's a big deal that ESPN's Todd McShay was raving about Cunningham!  McShay thinks Cunningham was the best receiver at the practices and that he could end up going in the third round of the draft.

Finally, there's Brian Linthicum, who is playing in the Senior Bowl.  According to Tony Pauline at SI.com, Linthicum has been impressive at the Senior Bowl practices: "Brian Linthicum (TE/Michigan State) has really impressed all day. He looked very athletic during opening drills and has made several impressive catches in full scrimmage."

Worthy, Cousins, and Cunningham have garnered most of the early attention, but here's a quick list of some related items:

- Keith Nichol made a nice grab (video) at the NFLPA Collegiate Bowl.
- Kirk Cousins, B.J. Cunningham, Keshawn Martin, Edwin Baker, and Trenton Robinson have all been invited to the NFL Scouting Combine.
- Trenton Robinson was interviewed by the Detroit Lions.  
- Unfortunately, there's not much news on other guys I expect have a good chance to get drafted, guys like Kevin Pickelman (injured), Todd Anderson, and Joel Foreman.  But hopefully, these guys will get invited to the NFL Combines, soon.

Leonidas writes on his own blog What Is Your Profession?. In addition to asking what your profession is he has begun writing to cover recruiting for ABDFF in his spare time. You can hit him up at noble.leonidas@gmail.com.

Monday, January 23, 2012

Kirk Cousins Will Be A Success on Sundays

In a happy coincidence of random awesomeness, new MSU blog "On the Banks of the Red Cedar" wrote about this very topic yesterday, so go check it out.

It feels bold to predict Kirk Cousins success in the NFL, after all, most mocks have Cousins going somewhere between the late second and the early fifth. He finished 30th in overall passing efficiency in 2011 and 13th among players who will be candidates in the 2012 NFL Draft. His best apparent analog really seems to be Ricky Stanzi who was an efficient and careful QB by his Senior Year. Stanzi was drafted in the fifth round in 2011 and didn't take a live snap in the 2011 NFL Season(he did miss chance due to injury though in late November).

Physically, Cousins has most of the traits you need to play the position. At 6'3" and 205 he is tall enough to play the position and injury has never been an issue for him. At 205-210 he's big enough to take a hit and wasn't seriously injured during his time at Michigan State. Is there another way to examine his deep arm than this?

 

That throw was about 60 yards and while there was a dude about to hit him in the face just before release and I get the sense he has another five to ten yards in his arm. This is adequate but not elite distance. The "Big-Armed" Quarterbacks in the League can throw 70 to 80 yards. I mention arm strength first because it is the most unchangeable asset in a Quarterback's development at 23 years old. So arm strength: Adequate, but not elite.

Cousins has some things he does really well in the passing game. He sells the playaction pass as well as anyone in college football. *Cousins also has a knack for audibling into the right play. He reads coverages really well pre-snap and can make tight throws into tight spaces if he's made the right read on the play. This also exposes one of his shortcomings as a passer, which is of course that he locks onto his pre-snap read and throws to them whether they are open or not. So Student of the Game: Very Good.


*- I found this google Cousins Play Action Pass. Some people have the Dumb real fierce.

In terms of accuracy, this is a number we can actually measure! In 2011, Cousins passer efficiency dropped from 150.7 to 145.1. He had a drop-off in yards per attempt from 8.36 to 7.91 and threw the same number of picks as in 2010 at 10 on the season. So did he get worse? No, not really. His yards per completion dropped from 12.5 in 2010 to 12.41 in 2011 which IMO is negligible and despite having thrown the same number of picks he threw five more TD's. He also threw 81 more times despite having played in only one more game which averages out to an additional four more attempts per game 26 in 2010 to 29.92 in 2011. While it might be foolish to assume that Cousins improved in this arena, it would be fair to say that he did not regress. The argument could easily be made that with MSU's diminished run game in 2011 that Cousins was responsible for being more accurate in better pass coverage.  Accuracy: Hard to tell how this will measure up to pro guys, but certainly very good at the collegiate level.

Schematically, Cousins has a huge advantage that only Andrew Luck and Russell Wilson have in front of him. Cousins plays and has played in a pro-style offense for three years now. One could even argue that Luck is the only one who has this since Wilson had a disappointing cup of coffee at Wisconsin. While the NFL is finally starting to acknowledge the Spread as a friend, not foe taking snaps from under Center is still a very big deal. Especially for a guy like Cousins who is apt to get happy feet when he feels pass rush pressure.

This familiarity with taking snaps from under center has served Brian Hoyer well in his capacity as back up to King Brady. As an undrafted rookie he beat out a field of QB's to win the sole backup job to Brady. In 2010, the Pats didn't even seriously audition anyone else and in 2011 they brought in Problem Child Ryan Mallett to challenge Hoyer for the job. Hoyer remains the number two even today. This familiarity with throwing the ball from under center will give him an advantage over most of these other QB's who will have to learn to make their reads from under center.

This advantage that only Cousins and Luck have is what will put Cousins in a position to succeed in the pros if he is given time to develop. They've played NFL offense for a couple years already.

So What Would Cause Him To Fail?

- Getting tossed onto a team where he ends up the immediate starter.(Very Unlikely) Teams who would fit such a bill:  Redskins, Seahawks, Browns. The odds that a guy drafted as a 3rd rounder or beyond would get a chance to start his rookie year are pretty slim. I wouldn't worry about this a whole lot.

- Getting put on a team where he is going to sit behind a young well-paid or franchise QB. (Packers, Colts with either Luck or Manning, Saints, Eagles, Chargers, Falcons, Giants, Rams, Lions, Jaguars, Vikings, Carolina,Titans) In either of these scenarios playing time would really be an issue for him.

Where should I root for him to land?

In no particular order:

Chargers - I know I said above that he doesn't want to land with the Chargers, but, the Bolts gave Rivers the keys to the team when they sent LT over to the Jets. Rivers has pretty much gone on to not lead his team to victory and he can be kind of a jerk. Coach Norv Turner and GM AJ Smith are on their last legs in SD. Cousins could be uniquely positioned in a 2012-2013 regime change. I don't like his odds here, but it's better than somewhere like Carolina.

Steelers - Big Ben has always seemed kind of, eh, as a QB, but he finds a way to win. Great out of the pocket, big arm. Charlie Batch is the backup there, but he's like 600 now, so it'd be a good place for Cousins to win a back-up job and proceed from there.

Cowboys - Romo is a great QB on paper and not so good at closing the deal in games. The patience for him is running thin. He needs to start winning or else. Drafting the best QB has not really been a high priority for Jerry Jones since Aikman. He pretty much goes out and buys someone in free agency or he drafts a mid round QB like Cousins and promotes from within.

Jets - The depth chart is favorable. Sanchez obviously isn't going to be Sanchize. So there's a crack at PT in a year or two. But God, I wouldn't wish being drafted to the Jets on someone I don't like.

Broncos - Yep, I said it. The Broncos. Tebow caught everyone napping this year and I do not think the Broncos continue their success in 2012. It would be a ripe situation for a young QB to take over in 2013. Cousins needs to impress Elway to pull this off.

Dolphins - I think the Dolphins go QB before they get to Cousins, but if they haven't I could see him getting snatched up. The Fins just hired the Broncos OC so this too would not be a bad spot for Cousins. He'd get a developmental year because with an all-new staff the Fins won't be in a huge yank to win games this year.

Notice a trend here? For an optimal crack at success, Cousins needs to land somewhere that wouldn't ask him to start his first year and that he also wouldn't be expected to sit behind an entrenched starter for the next five years.

Cousins Will Succeed Regardless of Who Takes Him

Cousins couldn't be landing in a more optimal situation for him as a mid-round QB. He's not Captain Swaggerballs, so I don't know that a first round NFL Game 1 Starting Job would be best for him anyway. He'll get a year or two to learn the offense whereever he goes. He has the physical tools to succeed at the next level, but they are not so plentiful that he can skate by on them. He has the added advantage of having taken many snaps under center which puts him ahead of many rookie QBs. He's never been short on right attitude or smarts, the only thing I see jeopardizing his career would ending up on a team full of "me first" asswipes like the Jets or Redskins.

Couple of Weekend Game Highlights First

- B.J. Cunningham had two catches for 26 yards including a nice TD grab on a 17 yard hitch in the East-West Shrine Game on Saturday.

- Keith Nichol had one reception for 37 yards in the NFLPA Bowl. Here are some highlights below, I'm pretty sure Nichol's catch is in the middle, but, it's a pretty craptastic video so I'm not really sure.




Confirmed Visitors from This Weekend

- Kyle Dodson, Aaron Burbridge, Tyler O'Connor, Monty Madaris, Jamal Lyles, Riley Bullough, MacGarrett Kings, Kodi Kieler, Mark Meyers. More about this on Wednesday.

- Mark Meyers and David Fennell committed to Michigan State on Sunday Afternoon. Leonidas over at what is your profession has the goods on Meyers and Fennell. Either of these guys fits the bill of a Dantonio "late in the recruiting process" guy like Le'Veon Bell or Keshawn Martin. Fennell had zero offers prior to his MSU offer, but read Leonidas article on him. No one thought Meyers would qualify, but he has and you should peep his film too. I'm going to skip doing a write-up on both guys for the time being in favor of doing an en masse write up around Signing Day.

Wednesday, November 30, 2011

MSU - Wisconsin Film Review: Round One, Quarter Two

This is part two of the original MSU-Wisconsin Game, Film Review. You can check out part one over here. The score is 14-0 Wisconsin, but MSU has stopped the bleeding and is getting some life in them.

Overpursue Much?


The reason this double end around worked so well is that the Badgers were overpursuing like mad cows. They all go to kill Cunningham on the end around and he simply hands off to Martin. Martin goes the other way and there are five people waiting to kill Aaron Henry. Poor Aaron Henry.

Cousins Continues to Ball Out

 Five Badgers, none close, but a bit of a scary throw.

The touch on both of these throws is outstanding. He has to jimmy it into the hole in the zone and he and Linthicum do a great job working together to find it.

 Here's the Cunningham TD on 4th and 2. That's the window Cousins threw it into. Ridiculous. Utterly ridiculous.

The Amazing Russell Wilson



If Russell Wilson wasn't a quarterback, he'd be doing something else amazing. This stiff arm of Johnny Adams was vicious.

Punt Block
 Here's the Punt Formation.

  
This play worked because four dudes broke through Wisconsin's line 1 and it forced the dude on the right side of Wisconsin's line 2 to have to pick between Elsworth and I think it was Fowler. It isn't the guys in line 2 that allowed the punt block, it was the guys from line 1.

A Few Other Narrative Observations from the Second Quarter


- I make fun of Bielema because I think he's a bit of a jerk and a meathead. The most compelling reason to make fun of Bielema for me though is that he is a perfect nemesis for a blog like this one. I mention this because it's important to separate the criticism for LOLs from the criticism I'm about to drop.

Montee Ball was plainly concussed after getting hit in the dome by Trenton Robinson. The momentum in this game switched from MSU cowering in the fetal position while being kicked by a bunch of manchildren to MSU hulk-smashing it's way through Wisconsin title hopes. I understand that Bielema knew if he lost this game a National Title berth was probably out the window. That said, putting Ball back in the game at the beginning of the third quarter was inexcusable. Concussions are linked to a bevy of really bad stuff. While I'm sure they are a part of the game, it's unacceptable to me to put Ball back in there.

- Worthy got away with an offsides on the play to set up the Safety. He started pulling out of his stance before the ball is snapped. He's done this all season long and honestly, that's fine with me. It works as often as not. MSU needs him to sit on that razor's edge again on Saturday night. With Wisconsin's all-college center Peter Konz likely out and certainly injured, he needs to disrupt the middle of the line early and often.

- On the blocked Field Goal, Welch Wisconsin's kicker, seemed dawdly to me. It looked like Moorman, their punter, struggled to get the ball down quickly. Nice play by Dennard to streak in there and take advantage of the extra half second.

- Denicos Allen was a machine in the second quarter. He forced the Intentional Grounding/Safety by Russell Wilson as well as sacked him later in the quarter. He was in yo backfield snatching yo people up. More of that in the title game, please.

End of the half, MSU 23 Wisconsin 14. The vaunted Badgers Offense gets zero points and 63 yards. The Badgers Special Teams are playing in a very "Special" way.

Sunday, November 13, 2011

Iowa: The Takeaway

Well another road game and another historical monkey off our backs. MSU walked away with their first Iowa victory at Kinnick since 1561. With that, I move to 0-4 at picking road games for this year. So we'll be losing at Northwestern(my official prediction!) in a couple of weeks. The thing that surprised me about this win was how comfortable it was. Yes, Iowa made a run in the second half, but it never closed within thirteen. A two possession game is pretty comfortable as far as I'm concerned.

So we have a couple of outstanding monkeys under Dantonio now and then I think we're good on monkey control. One, we need to win a bowl game. Two, we need to beat Nebraska at all as twitter follower MSUAlum2002 pointed out. The first is "more concerning" than the second, although, neither is worrisome yet.

How good was Kirk Cousins day yesterday? His passer rating was 160.5 and the only B10 game he had a higher one against was Wisconsin. It was his third best away game ever after 2010 Michigan and 2010 Penn State.

Why was our road offense so improved this week? Honestly, I saw plays I haven't seen this year yet. I saw several draw plays including Bell's 35 yard touchdown run. Also, I think the formation where the 3 WR lined up in a shallow diagonal to the right of the line and Cousins rolled right was new. Further, I think using Bell as the starter with Baker as the change of pace back worked perfectly. Bell got yardage early so Roushar didn't abandon the run too early and then the pressure was off Baker when he came into the game. I believe Michigan State is undefeated when LeVeon Bell gets 15 carries.

How did we hold Iowa's Offense down so well? Well, simply put, Vanderbeek isn't as good a Quarterback as he was in Varsity Blues, knowing full well a win put them in the catbird's seat to win the Rotel Division he opted for the simple life.



So MSU turned their attentions to stopping Iowa's run game and made Vanderbeek win the game on his arm. This was MSU's defensive gameplan against Iowa in 2009 and I assume that it was also the plan in 2010, but we'll never know. I figured Coker would not be tossing up 150 and 2TD's on us as he has been want to do the past four weeks, but I did not anticipate him being held to 57 yards on 21 carries. So when the fourth quarter came and Vanderbeek was playing from behind he started making bad reads and crappy throws.

Why were Iowa fans booing our injured players?

Because they're a bunch of whiners.



Seriously though, I'm not going back to rewatch the game to count up this number, but there were a lot of injuries that magically were fixable in 2-3 plays. At this point there might be a hint of truth to the injury fairy, because this happened at Nebraska too. More likely is that it's November and this defense is tired and dinged up. Genuinely hurt without a doubt yesterday though were Gholston and Dennard, hope they heal up soon.

Is this becoming a rivalry game?

Would you go with a double reverse pass off a reverse (thanks to @Baylan295 for finding that error) Keshawn Martin pass up 31-7 on someone you liked? What about faking a field goal three plays later? What about having Marvin McNutt throw a pass to Iowa's drug lord DJK in 2010 in the fourth quarter up 37-6? Make no mistake about it, there is bad blood brewing between Iowa and MSU. That plus all of the new offensive business from Roushar leads me to believe this was the second most important regular season game to this staff to win. BTW Pop Psychology thought, Iowa doesn't creep back in if we don't run the trickeration.

Bowl Outlook: I don't think we fall any farther than Cap One Bowl now. If we win out, we play for the Big Ten title in Indy and if we lose that game we're likely Cap One Bowl Bound. Our likely Big Ten Title game opponent? Wisconsin.

Spartans, this is about as good as it gets. Enjoy.

Monday, November 7, 2011

Kirk Ferentz: The Nemesis of Mark Dantonio?

In Iowa City, there lives a man. His name is Kirk Ferentz and he is the Head Coach of the Iowa Hawkeyes. After four years of watching this man in relation to our coach Mark Dantonio I have come to an indisputable conclusion. Kirk Ferentz's purpose in life is to shit in Mark Dantonio's cereal.

Last year was of course the most severe example with MSU losing 37-6 and Ferentz gleefully rubbing his nose in it. You know, as much as he gleefully does anything. In the video below, he cites the excellence of a play made by his team in this 37-6 blowout as payback for the "Hook and Lateral" that Michigan State ran against them in 2009.



You know, he was paying back Michigan State for making their 2009 game close. Maybe it wasn't satisfying enough for him to grow 70,000 arms and punch everyone in the gut as the clock expired in 2009. Seriously, what the hell kind of comment is that? The kind you deliver when you just drop the hammer on someone.

In 2008, MSU carries a 13-3 lead in at the half and is a 4th and 2 stop of Iowa's Shonn Greene away from losing at the end of the game. In 2007, we lose out in double overtime in a game we took right down to the wire. (Side Note: I watched that game in the Capital City airport bar with Tom Izzo.)

It's not that Ferentz beats MSU, it's that when he does beat MSU my blood hurts afterwards at the fashion in which the beating occurred. It's because of this that I find myself wondering if Kirk Ferentz is the nemesis of Mark Dantonio.

One Step Ahead

Ferentz and Dantonio share the mantra of playing football traditional Big 10 football with a focus on high percentage passes, minimizing turnovers and stifling defense. The problem is that in this match-up so far, Ferentz has totally outdueled Dantonio in these areas. The only time we won the turnover battle? When we won in 2008. How many times have we outrushed Iowa in this series? Zero. Even in 2008 win, they outgained us in total yardage and time of Possession. Why did we win that game they turned the ball over three times, we turned it over one. It's becoming clear that when Ferentz and Dantonio get themselves together in the yard, Ferentz beats Dantonio at his own game.

How And Why Is This Year Different?

There are two teams that control their own destiny in the Legends division. They are playing in Iowa City on Saturday. As a result, Iowa is getting the red-letter game treatment this week. Dantonio has closed off player access from the media for the second time this year. The first was against Ohio State who is apparently a much better team than we all thought they were after that game. Of course MSU has to win every game in November to have the opportunity to play for the Rose Bowl, but no remaining game will be more difficult than this Saturday's game in Iowa City.

Is there an analog for this season's game

Actually, yes. I'm glad you asked. This game actually reminds me a bit of the 2009 MSU-Iowa game. Iowa had a stifling defense, an at times baffling quarterback and was on their fourth string running back. MSU was having a disappointing season and struggled with losses in games they probably should not have lost. This game is mildly different in that 2011 Iowa is better than 2009 MSU was, but the stakes for 2011 MSU are equally as high they were for 2009 Iowa.

How Can Ferentz Foil Dantonio This Year? (Aka cause Mark Dantonio to say "I'll GET YOU NEXT TIME GADGET!!!!")

Simple. If he beats Dantonio on Saturday, goes on to lose a game to Nebraska, letting Nebraska back into the B10 title game and securing a bowl berth for MSU somewhere tepid in January like Tennessee. If this happens, next year this article will be titled Kirk Ferentz: The Man Who Ruins My Happy Times.

Wednesday, October 26, 2011

Kirk Cousins: The Last of a Dying Breed

The Michigan State/Wisconsin game will be a game I remember for a very, very long time. The game featured two typical Big Ten Quarterbacks both with semi-accurate arms, the ability to run a little bit and could play Wide Receiver if so desired. So I'm sure you could see why it's a little strange that the typical Big 10 Quarterback on our roster was the one who caught Saturday night's Hail Mary pass, not the one who threw it.

A bloodless revolution has taken place at the Quarterback position in the Big Ten over the past several years. In 2006, zero quarterbacks rushed for over 450 yards. In 2011, two (Denard Robinson and Taylor Martinez) have already eclipsed that total. MarQueis Gray, Kain Colter(if he plays even one more game), Nathan Scheelhaase and Braxton Miller are on pace to meet that 450 yard mark. Russell Wilson is on pace to come up just short Gray and Scheelhaase could pass it this weekend. Miller and Colter should just squeak over it.

There in dead-assed last sits our hero. Mr. Kirk Cousins. With 16 rushes for -70 yards he's not a runner. That's almost exclusively sack yardage. It's not that he can't run, it's that he chooses not to. I might add the dude who took the terrible angle plays for the Chargers now.



So Why Am I So Happy That Our Throwback QB Is Coming Back To The Future?

A couple reasons. First, the Big Ten is the most boring conference in college football. The national opinion of Big Ten Football is that it is slow, anachronistic and boring. This is the same reason Michigan hired RichRod, they wanted to be the first to the block with the new brand of football. That and Rodriguez was the first dude to say yes. I am 100 percent ok with the rest of the country thinking we're a conference full of Robot Henne Quarterbacks who can't run at all.

Second, this over the years will provide a distinct recruiting and development advantage. Brian Hoyer who did not get drafted at all in pro football has been Tom Brady's backup for the past three seasons. Kirk Cousins is anywhere between third and seventh on most analysts Draft Board despite the fact passing wise he's the fourth best QB in the Big Ten. If you want to play in the NFL at QB how fast you are doesn't really matter at all, it's how well you throw the ball. Being a pro-style quarterback prepares you for playing in the pros.

Kirk Cousins is the last of a dying breed for a few reasons. The bulk of which have nothing to do with and are far more important than this article. He is a human being that is what's good in people. The one that interested me today though is that he is the last of a dying breed of dropback passer in the Big Ten. In spite of that all, I'm not sure I'd want anyone else.

Thursday, September 29, 2011

OSU: Game Preview


So here we are. Getting ready to play our rival in Columbus this weekend.




So here we are. Getting ready to play our rival in Columbus this weekend.




If we win, it might totally get our season back on track. If we lose, it might throw us into a bit of a tailspin.




If we win, it might totally get our season back on track. If we lose, it might throw us into a bit of a tailspin.




Our offense has been anemic at times this year, but I our defense has been there to cover our butts when we really need it. Despite the problems we've been having, I think we can overcome them and still have a good season.




Our offense has been anemic at times this year, but I our defense has been there to cover our butts when we really need it. Despite the problems we've been having, I think we can overcome them and still have a good season.




What are you doing? Stop copying me!




What are you doing? Stop copying me!



Since Mark Dantonio came to MSU we have gone a major identity shift. We're no longer a band of JLS Merry Fools who manage to choke away games we've led for the first 58 minutes. Nor are we Bobby Williams types who underachieve both on and off the field. We play football to minimize mistakes, capitalize on the mistakes of others and keep ourselves in every game right until the end. Where did we learn this? Why from our old friend Papa Sweatervest. In fact, when Dantonio came to town he immediately started drawing comparisons to Michigan and how we can measure up to Michigan, but I think the more apt description of who we are and who he wanted us to be is Ohio State or at least Papa Sweatervest's Ohio State.

So, a few years later, Papa Sweatervest done knew about some bad things and tell the truth about it on multiple occasions. Papa Sweatervest was shown the door, and what a door it was. He was rumored to have received a 10 Million dollar retirement package, although the googles is coming up thin on details so who knows whether that's true or not. Now MSU has blueprinted major pieces of it's program based off of the work of a man whose moral credit is shaky.* However, his on-the-field record is sound and he has a national title to his name. Why wouldn't you want to blueprint yourself schematically off of Ohio State.

* - Disclaimer: I think a lot of NCAA rules are crap as do most people with common sense. So claiming his moral credit is shaky is within the framework of the NCAA rules.

So this game in a way represents a bit more than a rivalry game or even two programs looking to hold the ship steady for this season. I think this game represents who is going to play the finest Tresselball with the ghost of Jim Tressel haunting the shoe. I give the edge to OSU in personnel, but the edge goes to MSU in coaching. Anyway, I done introduced this enough.




MSU's Passing Attack vs OSU's Pass Defense

The only way you can really talk about this is to divide it into 3 sections. "Kirk Cousins" vs. "Dogg, Dion Sims was in double coverage behind both dudes", "Kirk Cousins" vs. "Dan France played Defensive Tackle last year, Micajah Reynolds was playing it last week", finally "Kirk Cousins" vs. "You Know, The OSU Pass Defense And Stuff".

"Kirk Cousins" vs. "Dogg, Dion Sims was in double coverage behind both dudes"

Kirk Cousins is a career 65 percent passer with a 46 TD's and 22 INT's. Against top 25 competition he is a 64 percent passer with 7 TD's and 10 INT's. (Note: This is calculated against top 25 at the time of play, not end of season).
So he completes roughly the same number of passes, but is more likely to throw a pick and less likely to throw a touchdown. In fact 10/22 of his career picks have come in just these seven games against top 25 competition. In his 3 wins against top 25 competition he threw 4 TD's and 4 INT's. In his four losses, he threw 3 TD's and 6 INT's.

Key to Success: Keep the TD to INT ratio at 1:1 or better.

"Kirk Cousins" vs. "Dan France played Defensive Tackle last year, Micajah Reynolds was playing it last week"

Well, if nothing else the injuries to our Offensive Line certainly have been well-documented. That said, great programs do find a way to overcome, great programs find ways to win tough road games and if that's what Michigan State wants to be, the Offensive Line needs to play better than it has so far this year. The reciprocation of course is that Cousins is going to have to trust his line and not take 3 yards on 3rd and 8 because he is fearing for his life. Quite a game of tightrope there.

Key To Success: For both Cousins and the Offensive Line to establish how well the Offensive Line is going to do early on so they can adjust appropriately.

"Kirk Cousins" vs. "You Know, The OSU Pass Defense And Stuff"

OSU is currently ranked 21st is passing yards defensed, tied for 28th in interceptions, 24th in passing efficiency defense, 32nd in sacks and 18th in 3rd down conversions. So I think you can pretty accurately say they have a top 25ish pass defense. They seem to be better than the rest of their averages at stopping people on 3rd down so keeping our down and distance manageable for Cousins is going to be critical, especially given the "more likely to throw a pick, less likely to throw a touchdown" thing previously discussed.

Like us OSU's primary strength on defense appears to be on it's defensive line. While they will likely be without star pass rusher Nathan Williams, OSU is deep on the defensive line. If the OSU pass rush can decimate our Offensive Line to "four turnstiles and Joel Foreman" (H/T to JustCoverBlog) expect them to have their way with us.

Key To Success: MSU slowing down OSU's Offensive Line adequately to give time for Cousins to make passes that move the chains. Cunningham continues his ridiculous knack for getting open even though he is double covered or more. If Cunningham has another Cunningham game(8 catches for 91 yards and a TD) look out!

Advantage: OSU
Reason: The combination of Cousins' nerves and an unproven, unsettled Offensive Line will be too much against a top 25 pass defense.





MSU's Rushing Attack vs OSU's Rush Defense

Ohio State ranks 29th in total rushing yardage allowed, 66th in total fumbles recovered(kind of a useless stat, but more relevant to rushing than passing) and 83rd in red zone defense. Michigan State conversely is 65th in total rushing yardage, 87th in red zone offense, 24th in fumbles lost, 82nd in 3rd down efficiency.

If we can get into the red zone I like our odds to score honestly. OSU has allowed their opponents into the redzone nine times this year and given up a touchdown on seven of them. I will take a 78 percent chance of a touchdown inside the 20 any day of the week. We have been to the redzone 24 times and scored 18 times. The six misses include two field goal misses and a not-so-surprising fake field goal.

It's getting to the red zone that worries me. MSU is 65th in total rushing yardage(partly buoyed down by that damn ND game), contrasted against OSU's 29th ranked rushing defense AND that our Offensive Line needs to play Big 10 ball before I'll be a believer I have trouble believing that our 1st and 10 runs will be very fruitful. Additionally, we are 82nd in 3rd down conversions contrasted against OSU's 18th ranked 3rd down defense.

This absolutely smacks of a game where we will have trouble moving the ball, which shouldn't come as a surprise to anyone. Luckily, we've not yet seen a lot of screens of either the middle or bubble variety. Also, I'll be interested to see if Roushar takes another stab at the unbalanced line, I've been dying to write a post on how that's supposed to work, but there's only so many hours in the day.

Key To Success: Get the ball to the endzone and have a good redzone conversion percentage. We might only need 3 touchdowns to win this.

Advantage:OSU
Reason: They look too good at stopping the run in situations where we need to be successful running the ball.




MSU's Pass Defense vs OSU's Passing Attack

Ohio State ranks 110th in total passing yardage, 75th in 3rd down efficicency and 67th in redzone offense scoring 10 TDs and 4 FGs on 17 trips. Michigan State ranks 1st in passing defense, 3rd in passing efficiency defense and 42nd in redzone defense.

Braxton Miller - AKA Diet Terrelle Pryor. Last week he threw 5 of 13 for 83 yards and had 83 yards rushing against a so-so pass defense. He makes good decisions with the ball having thrown 3 TD's to 1 INT so far this season. It looks like if we get pressure on him, he'll flush out of the pocket and take off with the ball.

Joe Bauserman - The deposed starter. Bauserman was the QB at the start of the season, he played what looked like mop-up duty against Colorado. He's a much better passer than Miller at this point in his career.

Both quarterbacks do not turn the ball over easily combining for a 7 TD to 1 INT ratio on the season. Miller is the starter for this week, but could get yoinked with a poor showing against our defense. The stats seem to favor our pass defense but you have to account for the Fail-A-U where they only got 26 yards passing. Even still, if we can contain their offense early we should be able to bottle up Miller by letting the front four do it's thing and have the linebackers play contain.

Key to Success: The linebackers containing Braxton Miller and not surrendering too many third down conversions. If Bauserman sees significant minutes it becomes the linebackers being able to defend the pass while Bauserman camps in the pocket.

Advantage:MSU
Reason: OSU is without two of it's better wide receivers, DeVeir Posey and likely will be without Philly Brown. It's asking too much of Miller to put this thing on his arm.




OSU Rushing Offense vs MSU Rush Defense

Ohio State ranks 39th in rushing yardage and Michigan State ranks 9th in rushing defense. It sounds like Jordan Hall is really coming on for the Buckeyes and will need to be watched out for. Carlos Hyde is their workhorse back and comes in at 6'1" and 238 lbs. Additionally, if Braxton Miller plays significant minutes expect him to take off Particularly on third down!.

MSU will continue to do what they do and as long as they don't have to blitz lots to stop the pass should be keyed in a good position to stop the run. I think the entire game could come down to this matchup. With a 4.6 ypc average, OSU doesn't seem unstoppable in the run game, but you can bet they are going to try and run the ball down our throats early and often. If they are successful and can keep the pressure off Braxton Miller they will have success moving the ball on us.

Key To Success: Contain Braxton Miller in the passing game and be able to load the box to stop the run. Stop Miller from converting 3rd downs with his feet on 3rd and long.

Advantage: MSU
Reason: MSU will be able to keep the running down to 2-3 ypc forcing Miller into a few 3rd and long situations. He'll convert a few against the Duzzer 3rd and long defense, but won't be able to run down the whole field that way.




Mark Dantonio vs Luke Fickell

Dantonio. Plain and simple. Has more experience. Isn't dealing with an off the field turmoil incident. Isn't missing five of his best players. Won't allow MSU to outthink itself again.

Advantage: MSU




Intangibles

The Shoe. When we win there, it's usually in grandiose fashion. When we lose there, it's usually in grandiose fashion. We have yet to knock off OSU at OSU. Cousins gets a bit nervy in big games. In short, I think the Home Field advantage will be exactly that, but the football gods will not give either team extra speed.

Advantage: OSU




So after 2000 words, these teams are basically equal in every way. MSU has a better quarterback, OSU has a better offensive line, all other position groups are of equal footing in my opinion. Dantonio is a better coach or at least a coach with fewer problems that need dealing at this point. Some of that will be negated by the home field advantage. It kills me to say this after all this writing, but I think neither team has a significant schematic or perceived advantage. Most of the differences wash out in another way.

The winner of this game will come down to who takes the best care of the football. Unfortunately, this would point to Ohio State. The Bauserman-Miller beast is keeping a 7-1 TD to INT ratio and as stated earlier on Cousins has had almost half of his picks come against top 25 competition.

Final Prediction: MSU 20, OSU 21