Thursday, February 23, 2012

Programming Note beginning 2/23.

Friends, Countrypeople?, Spartans.

The folks at A Beautiful Day For Football need a break and we're going to take it. Six months after the blog sprung to life, we've posted 171 times since August 9th and that's a lot of hours in front of a computer and on twitter. We need to catch up on some other things and come back in a week or two.



Quick Game Previews:

- MSU by a Jordan over Nebraska.
- MSU needs five points to guarantee home ice in the first round of the CCHA playoffs. They get four.(I have no idea what the hell I'm talking about here.)
- Indiana is omitted, because if MSU and Michigan win this weekend, I'll do five questions with Jamie Mac from the Just Cover Blog. Jamie is an Indiana and Michigan Hoops fan. Lots at stake for him next Tuesday.
- MSU over OSU. By 90. Draymond beats Jared Sullinger with his own arm at midcourt before tip-off. Derrick Nix and Adrien Payne actually combine into one person like Voltron and are 12 feet tall with appropriately sized lungs.

When we come back.

MSU has some business to attend to in New Orleans. We want to be ready to knock it out of the park for you guys.

Golden Gopher Recap, the Combine and Junior Day

So, that happened. MSU was due for a brain fart of a game and they had it. They were lucky to escape with a win and that Brandon Wood found his superhero cape just in time. Keith Appling had a rough game, Sophomore is Greek for "wise fool". Draymond "B1G Player of the Year" Green had 17 points, 5 assists, 5 rebounds and 4 steals in the win.

In my first eerily accurate basketball prediction, ever. A broken clock is right twice a day, even I guess.
MSU is on a tear right now that could rip small planets in half, but these numbers suggest that Minnesota will not be an easy out. Search your feelings using your best Jedi technique, you know this to be true.
Four Factors



Gross.
So what kept MSU in the game? Getting and converting lots and lots of free throws, which you knew. Also, MSU's turnover percentage was ridiculously good. Finally,  Minny got all Cameron Fry at the end of the game instead of all Ferris Bueller. Izzo, "The only thing I would give this team credit for is, if you’re in a championship-type run, you’ve got to steal a game somewhere. … I feel very fortunate to win it but proud we found way to win a game we didn’t deserve to.” Truth.

The NFL Combine

The Combine starts today for MSU players. You can follow the athletes live-tweeting the experience of traveling to the combine, BJ Cunningham "Detroit got real life birds flyin around in the airport" and Kirk Cousins, "The Grand Rapids airport has to have one of the slowest security lines in the country for the # of ppl passing through. 20 min wait at 6 AM". Was that a complaint Mr. Cousins? Today is indeed a special day.

The Little Brother Blog has a rundown of who reports when and when their drills will be. Today's arrivals will be Edwin Baker, Kirk Cousins, B.J. Cunningham and Keshawn Martin, but they don't workout until Sunday. Follow John Kreger on twitter for twittable combine updates.

A Word on the Upcoming Junior Day

If you follow recruiting at all, you know UM filled up half their class with top 250 players last weekend. If you're a bit high strung about recruiting, you know that MSU has a junior day coming up this weekend and Mark Dantonio will not be present for it.

Here's my take. At the beginning of every Roland Emmerich movie(The Day After Tomorrow, 2012, Independence Day), some small and insignificant event happens that foreshadows the impending Ice Storm of Doom. Brady Hoke got a huge jump on closing out his class of 2013, which is not a huge deal, but this gives him more time to work on the class of 2014, etc. Dantonio will be in LA this weekend, doing something for the Nike Coaches tour, whatever the hell that is. So not only will MSU not have a committ-a-palooza with the overpriced food, water and beer like Hoke had, they likely will not have a single commit. MSU rarely takes commits when Dantonio isn't around. It's a long haul from here to Signing Day and MSU will get theirs, but, if MSU recruiting starts to get snuffed out by UM and OSU in the coming years, people will point to things like this as a reason why.

Bonus Bits

Additional postgame dissection from Green Thoughts, The Only Colors and Hey, Joe! The Munn Minute has a post on how nice ND's new arena is.

Wednesday, February 22, 2012

Game Preview: Michigan State vs the Golden Gophers

The Tubby Smith School of Puppy Obidience

When: Tonight, 8:30pm
Where: The Barn, Minneapolis
Channel: Big Ten Network / 94.9 FM

Michigan State 22-5(11-3) takes on Minnesota 17-10(5-9) at the Barn. For MSU, a win gets them one step closer to an outright Big Ten title. For Minnesota, a win is necessary to keep their tournament hopes alive.

For Tubby Smith, a win might be necessary to keep his 2012-2013 employment hopes alive, this is the school that fired Glen Mason after all. Although with that mean look he has, he would be a puppy trainer for the ages.

Four Factors in Conference



Uh-Oh. MSU is on a tear right now that could rip small planets in half, but these numbers suggest that Minnesota will not be an easy out. Search your feelings using your best Jedi technique, you know this to be true. Minnesota is deep, 41.2% of their total minutes come off the bench, good for 11th nationally.

MSU is a smidge better at the four factors on offense, but where they really dominate the Gophers is on defense. MSU is holding their opponents to a stingy 41.9 percent eFG% while the Gophers are giving up 47.9 percent. MSU is holding their opponents to 28.1% Offensive Rebounding while the Gophers are allowing 33.2% Offensive Rebounding.

How To Achieve World Domination
  •  The Purdue/OSU Blueprint Won't Work Here - MSU can't just tire out the Gophers and get away with sloppy execution. Minnesota is Diet MSU, but similar enough in build and depth that simply running them out of the gym will not be enough to win the game.
  •  The Above is Not Completely True - Minnesota is thin in the frontcourt. Ralph Sampson and Elliott Eliason are the only players seeing significant minutes that are over 6'8". Eliason's stats show that he is basically a placeholder, Sampson is much better. A well utilized Derrick Payne will command the low post tonight.POUND GREEN POUND.
  • Which of course means - Minnesota is going to try and play small ball. So the keys there, keep Appling out of foul trouble, set up Draymond as the mismatch and rotate the guards often since that's what Tubby will be doing to MSU.
  •  Austin Thornton, Keep Doing That Voodoo That You Do So Well - Austin Thornton is currently has an Offensive Rating of 128.2, but obviously doesn't play TONS of minutes. It means when he is in the game he is ruthlessly efficient on offense. Keep being ruthlessly efficient on Offense, Austin Thornton.
Prediction of Ho-Hum Accuracy: MSU by 6. MSU looks unstoppable right now and this isn't a Brain Farty team, but, this game smacks of a Brain Fart loss in the making. Also the Law Of Gus.

Bonus Bits

Tuesday, February 21, 2012

Film Review Outback Bowl: 4 Offensive Questions

This is part two of our Outback Bowl Film Review. You can read part one of our review here and Heck's fantastic film review over on The Only Colors.

1.) Senator Cousins threw seven picks in thirteen games and three from the start of the fourth quarter in the Outback Bowl. What happened?

Well, the obvious suggestion would be that he was pressing, although he threw the first pick down only 16-14 with 11:21 left in the game. The way MSU's season went most games were only half over at this point.

Cousins Pick 1

MSU lines up in the shotgun and Georgia lines up in their 3-4 and shows blitz from the defense left or a slightly delayed blitz from defense right. The blitz ends up coming from the area in yellow. This is probably as good a job as Georgia did masking the blitz all day.
The play snaps and the defense right starts dropping back into coverage while two blockers on the left come completely unblocked. Obviously, Cousins is all "Oh Balls!". The left side of MSU's offensive line was expecting the blitz to come from the defense right and so they're left with no one to block.
Bell can't block both defenders, I mean he probably could if he was all hulked out and pissed like he is in the first quarter. Seriously, he can't block both guys. Foreman isn't blocking anyone, but doesn't look around to see if the blitz is coming from the other side.
Bell picks his poison, but ultimately he was just trying to make Cousins feel better about the fact that he had less than two seconds to get rid of this ball. Cousins is about to get smeared by number 19.
He throws the ball to what looks like a B.J. Cunningham who is in single coverage and has gotten himself some separation.
But the safety makes a great play and jumps the route and runs the other way with the ball. Which sucks.


Cousins Pick 2

MSU lines up in a Two Tight End I formation. Georgia has got nine in the box. MANBALL is about to ensue. right? RIGHT?
Wrong. The play snaps in some "Oh sir, you've bested me with your trickeration" fashion, Linthicum and Sims take off on verticals downfield. Cunningham runs a wheel route past the sticks.
Both Tight Ends are deep into the secondary and it looks like here comes another catch on Linthicum's already amazing 115 yard day.
I means seriously, Linthicum is stupid open. Except Alec Ogletree does his best Woodson imitation and leaps up in the air to tip a ball that he really had no business getting to.
He tips it down and it's a Fat Guy Interception. I'd try to screencap it, but the glory of a Fat Guy Interception is not meant to be beheld by viewing instrument less ornate than that of the simple human eye.

 Cousins Pick 3
MSU is in it's 5 WR package and Georgia lines up in a 3-4 Over. The blitz comes from defense right this time. The corner actually gets sent on a corner blitz, but because he's a few yards off the line of scrimmage it comes as an unblocked but slightly delayed blitz.
The play snaps and he begins his attack.
He's still coming while his friends are trying to kill Kirk. Note, if Keshawn Martin, WR at the top-right of the screen cuts his route short there's a good chance this isn't a pick.  Number 9(also top-right) is in man coverage on Cunningham. He still would have been short of the sticks but would have had a great chance to make a play.
Bell is open out in the flat but Cousins heard all of you guys screaming at him in the first half and knows that he should not throw short of the sticks.

Nichol is open way downfield, but Cousins got pressured into a bad throw and throws to his most reliable target, Cunningham.



2.) Nichol touchdown.

MSU lines up in a 5 WR shotgun set. Georgia lines up in it's 3-4. Georgia is guarding the endzone fiercely as evidenced by the three deep safeties right on the goal line.
The play snaps and Georgia brings four, the remaining four that are up on the line pick a man and drop into coverage.
The red represents the actual routes run by the Wide Receivers. In a moment you'll see this was obviously a designed clearout for Nichol from the outset.
Here the yellow routes are what MSU ran and the red routes are what the respective routes by Georgia defense was. The concern that Keshawn Martin caused for the Georgia D is what allowed Nichol to get open. Martin ran right at the deep middle safety and dragged both the safety and his linebacker into double coverage. Cunningham who ran the quick out, had the job of taking his guy out of the play, which left Nichol in single coverage in the endzone. Nichol can outmuscle a safety because even his muscles have muscles.




3.) Safety Play

Keshawn Martin has the red line over him. He is about to be safetied for safety's sake.
The blitz is coming from the area in yellow. That is a lot of blitzing. Sugar jets!
The play snaps and Cunningham starts on his route. The red route was the route he ran, the yellow route would have probably prevented a safety. It would have caused Boykins to square himself in the wrong direction, which would have given Martin time to at least get out of the endzone.
Instead Martin catches the ball two yards behind the goal line. ROUSHAR ALIEN HYPOTHESIS COMES NOW: If Martin can slip the tackle on Boykins, this is a minimum of a 40 yard gain. Likely six points. Number 9, Ogletree in the middle of your screen has a good angle, but is an inside linebacker and is likely not going to beat Martin in a footrace. Your next best angle belongs to All-American Safety Shawn Williams. Alas, instead of a well-disguised home run ball, Georgia gets two points.
I only bring this picture up because I want to show how hard Martin got hit. He's like three inches short of breaking the plane and doesn't make it out.
In fact, he got hit so hard he got knocked clean backwards for another yard loss on top of that. So that sucked.

4.) Brian Linthicum catches a 50 yard pass to set up the tying Touchdown.


Two things happened on this play that made all the difference. Georgia sent six on the blitz and it didn't get home. Thing number two is that in the still above, Linthicum had not yet caught the ball and Travis Jackson was a few yards downfield. I'm not saying that's an illegal man downfield, I'm just saying maybe be a bit more careful about that in the future.


I really wanted to do a workup on how and why Linthicum had 7 grabs for 115 and what gave him that success in this game. Unfortunately,  there really wasn't a typical play to chart on the matter. 115/7 is 16.3 yards per grab. He had two catches in the neighborhood of that a 17 yard pass from Cousins and an 18 yard pass from Martin, but his other catches were for -1,3,23,50 and 5 yards. So his day seemed to be largely feast or famine so it's difficult to use that as a framework to describe the whole day.



5.) I can't make this BieLOLema up.




I swore those were the Dr. Dre's Beats, but instead they're Bose. And as every audiophile jokes, "No highs, no lows, it's Bose". Crappy headphones and a pair of Officer Barbrady aviators. That's bi-winning!

Summation

Prior to the Outback Bowl all I heard from a couple of the Georgia bloggers that I follow is how afraid MSU should be of Georgia's D. It's absolutely true, their defense was excellent in getting Cousins to turn the ball over three times for the first and only time in 2011 and holding Bell to his lowest YPC of the season. For as much as I made reference in the MSU D vs UGA O post about how well MSU's D played, UGA's D did an equally impressive job.

The Offense as a result had kind of a feast or famine day and Dan Roushar got to wheel out his inner OC alien which always makes the denizens of Zerfgnax happy. In rewatching this game, we are going to miss Kirk Cousins next year. In spite of having a poor game, he had the poise and confidence to get in there and win MSU the game. People who think Maxwell will be an immediate upgrade will be lucky if they're right, as will we, the fans.

This is a great building block win for going into 2012. Georgia was a young and talented team who got the jump on MSU early and couldn't quite hang in there to close out the game. MSU beat a team when the two teams were on equal footing. It was a great way to close out the career for so many deserving seniors and set up our future seniors for their bowl game success.

Monday, February 20, 2012

Hoping for Good Surprises

Ever notice how much the outcome of a football season is influenced by surprises?  For example, how well would the Spartans have done last year if the play of our linebackers had not been a good surprise?  Honestly, I expected that unit to take a step back last year considering that the Spartans needed to replace Greg Jones and Eric Gordon.  Yet, the linebackers turned out to be one of the strengths of the team.

Surprises can also work against you, however.  For example, the running game was supposed to be the strength of the team, last year.  The "three-headed monster" (Baker, Bell, and Caper) was supposed to carry the team.  But it turned out that the offensive line struggled more than most of us expected.  I expected some struggle but not so much that the Spartans would end up last in rushing yards in the B1G and 78th in the country.  Clearly, that was not a good surprise.  If not for the surprising dominance of the defense (honestly, who expected the Spartans to finish in the top 5 in defense?), the weakness of the running game may have produced a losing season.

So what would be a good surprise for next year?  Well, as everyone knows, the Spartans are losing all of their starters from the passing game: Cousins, Cunningham, Martin, Nichol, Linthicum, and Celek.  That's pretty devastating.  So if we only get one good surprise next year, it would be nice if it came in the form of an explosive passing game.

It would be nice if Andrew Maxwell turns out to be Andrew Luck II, but I'm not greedy.  I would count it a nice surprise if Maxwell simply played as well as Kirk Cousins did in his junior year.  It would be spectacular if at least two of our talented receivers for next year would play as well Keshawn Martin and BJ Cunningham did this year.  But I would be happy if they played as well as Martin and Cunningham played in their junior years.

How important is it for the Spartans to get a nice surprise from their passing game?  Well, I would go as far as to assert that if the Spartans experience no other surprises -- that is, if the O-line, D-line, running backs, linebackers, defensive backs, and special teams all play as well as I expect them to play -- then they could compete for a national championship.  Of course, things never work out so neatly.  If the universe surprises us with a great passing game, it will probably balance itself by taking away our D-line (perhaps Jerel Worthy proves irreplaceable), or something else.

Unfortunately, surprises are by definition unpredictable.  But they are so common that we might as well assume that some big ones are going to occur this fall.  The probability that all the surprises will fall our way are relatively low.  But you never know.

A BieLOLema To Cure A Case of the Mondays

Sometimes you get A Case of the Mondays. There's only one thing to cure that, for me anyway. I think at least our football coach is not Rob Riggle from the Goods.

Someday he's gonna get some and it's going to be amazing.


A happy Monday Evening to you.

Monday Hot Links Is Playing NBA Jam While Watching Glengarry Glen Ross

Photo Credit: MLive
It was A Tale of Two Halves in West Lafayette on Sunday as MSU demolished Purdue 76-62. Brandon Dawson had a double-double, scoring 15 points and 11 boards including this NBA Jam! Draymond Green also scored a double-double picking up 20 points and 10 boards in the effort.

In the first half of the game, Robbie Hummel went on a monster tear turning in 18 points to put Purdue up 38-35 in the half. Even in the first half, you could see Izzo starting to work the Matta blueprint by substituting in Kearney and Gauna to chip away at the Boilers recently eroded depth chart. In the end it was too much for Purdue as MSU outscored them 41-24 in the second half for the victory.

Four Factors



Obviously, MSU made it's hay in Effective Field Goal percentage and Offensive Rebounding Percentage against Purdue. Lately, the defense is getting lots of deserved dap from the lovers of MSU basketball but the offense has very effectively held up it's end of the bargain with an eFG of over 55 percent against Purdue and Wisky.

B1G Title Outlook

MSU moves into sole possession of first place(11-3) in the Big Ten after Michigan beat OSU 56-51 and MSU's win on Sunday afternoon. Michigan and OSU are close behind at (10-4). MSU has to win 3 of 4 to share a title with either OSU or Michigan. Michigan has the easiest path to winning their last four, they play no ranked teams, but three away games. MSU plays two ranked teams and two away games. MSU/OSU on March 4th will almost certainly decide the Big Ten.

If People Cared About Hockey the Way They Care About Football, Tom Anastos Would Be As Big A Deal As Brady Hoke Was In 2011

The Icers swept the Alaska Nanooks and defended East Lansing from it's YouTube demise over the weekend to move into fourth place in the CCHA standings. The last series of the regular season is this upcoming weekend at Notre Dame. The Spartans need to get five points at ND to clinch first round home ice. They've also improved their chances at an NCAA tournament bid and are currently projected as a #3 seed.

The parallels between Brady Hoke and Tom Anastos are significant. Both coaches inherited programs that wanted a return to core values. Both coaches inherited teams that were full of players that needed reworking to fit their new/old system. Both coaches were thin on experience. Only one is actually thin though, ZING! Both coaches have made great strides with their team in year one.

Speaking of Brady Hoke...

I think he got all liquored up and watched ALL OF THE GLENGARRY GLENROSS on his way to an eight commitment weekend. Here's some footage of Hoke's "Soft Sell".


MSU Junior Day is this upcoming weekend. Do not expect an eight commitment weekend. No one should ever expect that, your life would be a series of disappointing weekends. More info on who will be attending later this week. Little Brother Blog has a good post on how the Michigan recruiting bonanza helps clarify the MSU recruiting picture.

Bonus Bits

As it regards conference expansion, the hopes for the SunBeast conference aren't dead yet. The NFL Combine starts on Wednesday, lest you forget, and the Seahawks will be watching Kirk Cousins. The writer who penned the racist Jeremy Lin headline has been fired, but the ESPN anchor who spoke the words gets to stay, because he's Ron Burgundy?