So here we are. Getting ready to play our rival in Columbus this weekend.
So here we are. Getting ready to play our rival in Columbus this weekend.
If we win, it might totally get our season back on track. If we lose, it might throw us into a bit of a tailspin.
If we win, it might totally get our season back on track. If we lose, it might throw us into a bit of a tailspin.
Our offense has been anemic at times this year, but I our defense has been there to cover our butts when we really need it. Despite the problems we've been having, I think we can overcome them and still have a good season.
Our offense has been anemic at times this year, but I our defense has been there to cover our butts when we really need it. Despite the problems we've been having, I think we can overcome them and still have a good season.
What are you doing? Stop copying me!
What are you doing? Stop copying me!
Since Mark Dantonio came to MSU we have gone a major identity shift. We're no longer a band of JLS Merry Fools who manage to choke away games we've led for the first 58 minutes. Nor are we Bobby Williams types who underachieve both on and off the field. We play football to minimize mistakes, capitalize on the mistakes of others and keep ourselves in every game right until the end. Where did we learn this? Why from our old friend Papa Sweatervest. In fact, when Dantonio came to town he immediately started drawing comparisons to Michigan and how we can measure up to Michigan, but I think the more apt description of who we are and who he wanted us to be is Ohio State or at least Papa Sweatervest's Ohio State.
So, a few years later, Papa Sweatervest done knew about some bad things and tell the truth about it on multiple occasions. Papa Sweatervest was shown the door, and what a door it was. He was rumored to have received a 10 Million dollar retirement package, although the googles is coming up thin on details so who knows whether that's true or not. Now MSU has blueprinted major pieces of it's program based off of the work of a man whose moral credit is shaky.* However, his on-the-field record is sound and he has a national title to his name. Why wouldn't you want to blueprint yourself schematically off of Ohio State.
* - Disclaimer: I think a lot of NCAA rules are crap as do most people with common sense. So claiming his moral credit is shaky is within the framework of the NCAA rules.
So this game in a way represents a bit more than a rivalry game or even two programs looking to hold the ship steady for this season. I think this game represents who is going to play the finest Tresselball with the ghost of Jim Tressel haunting the shoe. I give the edge to OSU in personnel, but the edge goes to MSU in coaching. Anyway, I done introduced this enough.
MSU's Passing Attack vs OSU's Pass Defense
The only way you can really talk about this is to divide it into 3 sections. "Kirk Cousins" vs. "Dogg, Dion Sims was in double coverage behind both dudes", "Kirk Cousins" vs. "Dan France played Defensive Tackle last year, Micajah Reynolds was playing it last week", finally "Kirk Cousins" vs. "You Know, The OSU Pass Defense And Stuff".
"Kirk Cousins" vs. "Dogg, Dion Sims was in double coverage behind both dudes"
Kirk Cousins is a career 65 percent passer with a 46 TD's and 22 INT's. Against top 25 competition he is a 64 percent passer with 7 TD's and 10 INT's. (Note: This is calculated against top 25 at the time of play, not end of season).
So he completes roughly the same number of passes, but is more likely to throw a pick and less likely to throw a touchdown. In fact 10/22 of his career picks have come in just these seven games against top 25 competition. In his 3 wins against top 25 competition he threw 4 TD's and 4 INT's. In his four losses, he threw 3 TD's and 6 INT's.
Key to Success: Keep the TD to INT ratio at 1:1 or better.
"Kirk Cousins" vs. "Dan France played Defensive Tackle last year, Micajah Reynolds was playing it last week"
Well, if nothing else the injuries to our Offensive Line certainly have been well-documented. That said, great programs do find a way to overcome, great programs find ways to win tough road games and if that's what Michigan State wants to be, the Offensive Line needs to play better than it has so far this year. The reciprocation of course is that Cousins is going to have to trust his line and not take 3 yards on 3rd and 8 because he is fearing for his life. Quite a game of tightrope there.
Key To Success: For both Cousins and the Offensive Line to establish how well the Offensive Line is going to do early on so they can adjust appropriately.
"Kirk Cousins" vs. "You Know, The OSU Pass Defense And Stuff"
OSU is currently ranked 21st is passing yards defensed, tied for 28th in interceptions, 24th in passing efficiency defense, 32nd in sacks and 18th in 3rd down conversions. So I think you can pretty accurately say they have a top 25ish pass defense. They seem to be better than the rest of their averages at stopping people on 3rd down so keeping our down and distance manageable for Cousins is going to be critical, especially given the "more likely to throw a pick, less likely to throw a touchdown" thing previously discussed.
Like us OSU's primary strength on defense appears to be on it's defensive line. While they will likely be without star pass rusher Nathan Williams, OSU is deep on the defensive line. If the OSU pass rush can decimate our Offensive Line to "four turnstiles and Joel Foreman" (H/T to JustCoverBlog) expect them to have their way with us.
Key To Success: MSU slowing down OSU's Offensive Line adequately to give time for Cousins to make passes that move the chains. Cunningham continues his ridiculous knack for getting open even though he is double covered or more. If Cunningham has another Cunningham game(8 catches for 91 yards and a TD) look out!
Advantage: OSU
Reason: The combination of Cousins' nerves and an unproven, unsettled Offensive Line will be too much against a top 25 pass defense.
MSU's Rushing Attack vs OSU's Rush Defense
Ohio State ranks 29th in total rushing yardage allowed, 66th in total fumbles recovered(kind of a useless stat, but more relevant to rushing than passing) and 83rd in red zone defense. Michigan State conversely is 65th in total rushing yardage, 87th in red zone offense, 24th in fumbles lost, 82nd in 3rd down efficiency.
If we can get into the red zone I like our odds to score honestly. OSU has allowed their opponents into the redzone nine times this year and given up a touchdown on seven of them. I will take a 78 percent chance of a touchdown inside the 20 any day of the week. We have been to the redzone 24 times and scored 18 times. The six misses include two field goal misses and a not-so-surprising fake field goal.
It's getting to the red zone that worries me. MSU is 65th in total rushing yardage(partly buoyed down by that damn ND game), contrasted against OSU's 29th ranked rushing defense AND that our Offensive Line needs to play Big 10 ball before I'll be a believer I have trouble believing that our 1st and 10 runs will be very fruitful. Additionally, we are 82nd in 3rd down conversions contrasted against OSU's 18th ranked 3rd down defense.
This absolutely smacks of a game where we will have trouble moving the ball, which shouldn't come as a surprise to anyone. Luckily, we've not yet seen a lot of screens of either the middle or bubble variety. Also, I'll be interested to see if Roushar takes another stab at the unbalanced line, I've been dying to write a post on how that's supposed to work, but there's only so many hours in the day.
Key To Success: Get the ball to the endzone and have a good redzone conversion percentage. We might only need 3 touchdowns to win this.
Advantage:OSU
Reason: They look too good at stopping the run in situations where we need to be successful running the ball.
MSU's Pass Defense vs OSU's Passing Attack
Ohio State ranks 110th in total passing yardage, 75th in 3rd down efficicency and 67th in redzone offense scoring 10 TDs and 4 FGs on 17 trips. Michigan State ranks 1st in passing defense, 3rd in passing efficiency defense and 42nd in redzone defense.
Braxton Miller - AKA Diet Terrelle Pryor. Last week he threw 5 of 13 for 83 yards and had 83 yards rushing against a so-so pass defense. He makes good decisions with the ball having thrown 3 TD's to 1 INT so far this season. It looks like if we get pressure on him, he'll flush out of the pocket and take off with the ball.
Joe Bauserman - The deposed starter. Bauserman was the QB at the start of the season, he played what looked like mop-up duty against Colorado. He's a much better passer than Miller at this point in his career.
Both quarterbacks do not turn the ball over easily combining for a 7 TD to 1 INT ratio on the season. Miller is the starter for this week, but could get yoinked with a poor showing against our defense. The stats seem to favor our pass defense but you have to account for the Fail-A-U where they only got 26 yards passing. Even still, if we can contain their offense early we should be able to bottle up Miller by letting the front four do it's thing and have the linebackers play contain.
Key to Success: The linebackers containing Braxton Miller and not surrendering too many third down conversions. If Bauserman sees significant minutes it becomes the linebackers being able to defend the pass while Bauserman camps in the pocket.
Advantage:MSU
Reason: OSU is without two of it's better wide receivers, DeVeir Posey and likely will be without Philly Brown. It's asking too much of Miller to put this thing on his arm.
OSU Rushing Offense vs MSU Rush Defense
Ohio State ranks 39th in rushing yardage and Michigan State ranks 9th in rushing defense. It sounds like Jordan Hall is really coming on for the Buckeyes and will need to be watched out for. Carlos Hyde is their workhorse back and comes in at 6'1" and 238 lbs. Additionally, if Braxton Miller plays significant minutes expect him to take off Particularly on third down!.
MSU will continue to do what they do and as long as they don't have to blitz lots to stop the pass should be keyed in a good position to stop the run. I think the entire game could come down to this matchup. With a 4.6 ypc average, OSU doesn't seem unstoppable in the run game, but you can bet they are going to try and run the ball down our throats early and often. If they are successful and can keep the pressure off Braxton Miller they will have success moving the ball on us.
Key To Success: Contain Braxton Miller in the passing game and be able to load the box to stop the run. Stop Miller from converting 3rd downs with his feet on 3rd and long.
Advantage: MSU
Reason: MSU will be able to keep the running down to 2-3 ypc forcing Miller into a few 3rd and long situations. He'll convert a few against the Duzzer 3rd and long defense, but won't be able to run down the whole field that way.
Mark Dantonio vs Luke Fickell
Dantonio. Plain and simple. Has more experience. Isn't dealing with an off the field turmoil incident. Isn't missing five of his best players. Won't allow MSU to outthink itself again.
Advantage: MSU
Intangibles
The Shoe. When we win there, it's usually in grandiose fashion. When we lose there, it's usually in grandiose fashion. We have yet to knock off OSU at OSU. Cousins gets a bit nervy in big games. In short, I think the Home Field advantage will be exactly that, but the football gods will not give either team extra speed.
Advantage: OSU
So after 2000 words, these teams are basically equal in every way. MSU has a better quarterback, OSU has a better offensive line, all other position groups are of equal footing in my opinion. Dantonio is a better coach or at least a coach with fewer problems that need dealing at this point. Some of that will be negated by the home field advantage. It kills me to say this after all this writing, but I think neither team has a significant schematic or perceived advantage. Most of the differences wash out in another way.
The winner of this game will come down to who takes the best care of the football. Unfortunately, this would point to Ohio State. The Bauserman-Miller beast is keeping a 7-1 TD to INT ratio and as stated earlier on Cousins has had almost half of his picks come against top 25 competition.
Final Prediction: MSU 20, OSU 21
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