Second Half Game Film of UGA-FLA will not be done before the game as a standalone entity. Writing a blog over the holidays is like, really hard work man. The first half is available for your viewing here. You can check out the Q&A with CollegeFootballZealots' Kevin here as well as our replies to his questions, over at College Football Zealots.
Happy New Year Everyone! May 2012 bring merriment, a lack of Mayan-prophesied world destruction and a first bowl victory of the Mark Dantonio era. Georgia is a formidable opponent but perhaps MSU's first foe who did not have a clear advantage over them since Mark Dantonio came to MSU. If you'll recall in the 2007 bowl, MSU played Matt Ryan, in 2008 it was Matt Stafford, in 2009 it was our missing WR corps from Rathergate and in 2010 it was playing an Alabama team where literally half that defense starts in the NFL now. This last run-on sentence looks excuse-y and to a degree it is, but it also helps explain Mark Dantonio's 0-4 bowl record.
Georgia is a very young and talented team. Unlike MSU they are young on both sides of the ball where MSU's defense is young, but their offense is extremely experienced. Like MSU, Georgia lost in their conference title game and let up 42 points to their opponent. Both teams have outstanding defenses ranked in the top 16 in total scoring defense. MSU and Georgia have less respectable, but still very good offenses ranking 37th and 34th respectively. On paper, this game looks to be about as evenly matched as a fan of good college football could hope for.
Georgia Passing Offense vs MSU Passing Defense
UGA's starting offensive line averages 329 lbs. They will have a huge task ahead of them working to give Aaron Murray time to throw. Murray appears to be inconsistent against top 10 passing defenses. He threw for 4TD's and a pick with a 176 passer rating against the nation's number two passing defense South Carolina. He threw for 2TD's and a pick with a 99 passer rating against Florida and a 1 TD and 2 picks with a 72 passer rating against LSU in the title game. I'm inclined to think the Cocks surrendered so much to Georgia because Future Pro Bowler Jadeveon Clowney was still getting situated to college and Stephen Garcia sucked turning the ball over twice for SC.
MSU's defensive line has shown the ability to adapt to an offensive scheme quickly, but not usually until they've surrendered a touchdown on the opening drive this year. They also have a knack for shutting down the run and forcing their opponent to throw. I expect you'll see this tomorrow, the defensive gameplan being to make Aaron Murray win the game under blitzing pressure. The patented Narduzzi double-gap blitz will be deployed early and often. I think MSU forces Murray into a few bad decisions.
Advantage: MSU
Georgia Rushing Offense vs MSU Rushing Defense
Georgia has the 41st ranked rushing attack and MSU has the 12th ranked rushing defense. Georgia has a pair of running backs that MSU should keep a bead on. Isaiah Crowell, the freshman phenom and Carlton Thomas a 5'7" and 163 pound speedster. MSU hasn't really played anyone that small and fast yet this year, so it's a bit difficult to guess how well MSU can handle someone that quick and shifty. Crowell on the other hand, they played someone similarly built and fluid in Montee Ball I think.
The matchup of MSU's run D vs UGA's run game will determine how successful the Georgia offense is. MSU has held it's conference opponents to an average of 75 yards below their season rushing average. If that trend holds, that would mean 95 yards rushing for UGA on the game, that's probably not enough to turn the game for Georgia.
Advantage: MSU
MSU Passing Offense vs Georgia Passing Defense
The game hinges here for how many points MSU's Offense will score. Cousins has been brilliant on the road and terrible on the road. Cousins brilliance will depend on his ability to get a couple seconds to throw, which means that both offensive tackles will need to have a great game. Keeping the linebackers out of the backfield is going to be a difficult task for France and Fonoti.
That said, the short middle of the field was and has been filthy open in the half of the UGA-FLA game I saw. Exactly the kind of stuff that Keshawn Martin and our Tight Ends feast on. Exactly the kind of 5 yard checkdown throw that Cousins will make on the 3rd and 8 that makes the twitterverse explode into a fit of armchair QB rage. I think Cousins makes his reads well enough to throw to the vacated blitzer protection, but if the UGA pass rush can get home, it'll be a long day.
Advantage: Push
MSU Rushing Offense vs Georgia Rushing Defense
Hey, who lost their conference title game and finished one spot ahead of MSU in the total rushing defense? UGA. Guess who has the 75th best rushing game even with the late season emergence of Le'Veon Bell? MSU.
Advantage: UGA
Special Teams
FG - Blair Walsh 19/31 , Dan Conroy 15/21
P - Drew Butler 44.3 , Mike Sadler 39.8 per punt
They have the better punter, although I can't find "inside the 20" punts, which is something Sadler does really well. We have the better kicker. I think MSU has the upper hand in Special Teams, although not in a dominating way.
Advantage: MSU
Overall
UGA is a very, very good and very young team. They were the beneficiaries of an extremely nice in-season schedule not playing the best three teams in the SEC and only playing LSU in the conference title game. They do remind me a bit of the 2010 Spartans with the favorable schedule and great outcome. They will not get crushed like the 2010 Spartans did although I can always dream.
In the UGA-FLA game I watched I saw several missed tackles that were directly responsible for extending drives and overall was left with the impression that MSU might be equally as talented as Georgia, but their ability to play consistent and fundamentally sound football will be the thing that pushes MSU over the top in this one. Add to that the fact that Conroy is automatic inside of 40 yards and only missed one inside of 50 this year minus two bad holds in the YSU and FAU games and I forsee MSU outplaying Georgia significantly in the Special Teams phase of the game. MSU wins this one comfortably.
Final Score: MSU 34, Georgia 21
Happy New Year Everyone! May 2012 bring merriment, a lack of Mayan-prophesied world destruction and a first bowl victory of the Mark Dantonio era. Georgia is a formidable opponent but perhaps MSU's first foe who did not have a clear advantage over them since Mark Dantonio came to MSU. If you'll recall in the 2007 bowl, MSU played Matt Ryan, in 2008 it was Matt Stafford, in 2009 it was our missing WR corps from Rathergate and in 2010 it was playing an Alabama team where literally half that defense starts in the NFL now. This last run-on sentence looks excuse-y and to a degree it is, but it also helps explain Mark Dantonio's 0-4 bowl record.
Georgia is a very young and talented team. Unlike MSU they are young on both sides of the ball where MSU's defense is young, but their offense is extremely experienced. Like MSU, Georgia lost in their conference title game and let up 42 points to their opponent. Both teams have outstanding defenses ranked in the top 16 in total scoring defense. MSU and Georgia have less respectable, but still very good offenses ranking 37th and 34th respectively. On paper, this game looks to be about as evenly matched as a fan of good college football could hope for.
Georgia Passing Offense vs MSU Passing Defense
UGA's starting offensive line averages 329 lbs. They will have a huge task ahead of them working to give Aaron Murray time to throw. Murray appears to be inconsistent against top 10 passing defenses. He threw for 4TD's and a pick with a 176 passer rating against the nation's number two passing defense South Carolina. He threw for 2TD's and a pick with a 99 passer rating against Florida and a 1 TD and 2 picks with a 72 passer rating against LSU in the title game. I'm inclined to think the Cocks surrendered so much to Georgia because Future Pro Bowler Jadeveon Clowney was still getting situated to college and Stephen Garcia sucked turning the ball over twice for SC.
MSU's defensive line has shown the ability to adapt to an offensive scheme quickly, but not usually until they've surrendered a touchdown on the opening drive this year. They also have a knack for shutting down the run and forcing their opponent to throw. I expect you'll see this tomorrow, the defensive gameplan being to make Aaron Murray win the game under blitzing pressure. The patented Narduzzi double-gap blitz will be deployed early and often. I think MSU forces Murray into a few bad decisions.
Advantage: MSU
Georgia Rushing Offense vs MSU Rushing Defense
Georgia has the 41st ranked rushing attack and MSU has the 12th ranked rushing defense. Georgia has a pair of running backs that MSU should keep a bead on. Isaiah Crowell, the freshman phenom and Carlton Thomas a 5'7" and 163 pound speedster. MSU hasn't really played anyone that small and fast yet this year, so it's a bit difficult to guess how well MSU can handle someone that quick and shifty. Crowell on the other hand, they played someone similarly built and fluid in Montee Ball I think.
The matchup of MSU's run D vs UGA's run game will determine how successful the Georgia offense is. MSU has held it's conference opponents to an average of 75 yards below their season rushing average. If that trend holds, that would mean 95 yards rushing for UGA on the game, that's probably not enough to turn the game for Georgia.
Advantage: MSU
MSU Passing Offense vs Georgia Passing Defense
The game hinges here for how many points MSU's Offense will score. Cousins has been brilliant on the road and terrible on the road. Cousins brilliance will depend on his ability to get a couple seconds to throw, which means that both offensive tackles will need to have a great game. Keeping the linebackers out of the backfield is going to be a difficult task for France and Fonoti.
That said, the short middle of the field was and has been filthy open in the half of the UGA-FLA game I saw. Exactly the kind of stuff that Keshawn Martin and our Tight Ends feast on. Exactly the kind of 5 yard checkdown throw that Cousins will make on the 3rd and 8 that makes the twitterverse explode into a fit of armchair QB rage. I think Cousins makes his reads well enough to throw to the vacated blitzer protection, but if the UGA pass rush can get home, it'll be a long day.
Advantage: Push
MSU Rushing Offense vs Georgia Rushing Defense
Hey, who lost their conference title game and finished one spot ahead of MSU in the total rushing defense? UGA. Guess who has the 75th best rushing game even with the late season emergence of Le'Veon Bell? MSU.
Advantage: UGA
Special Teams
FG - Blair Walsh 19/31 , Dan Conroy 15/21
P - Drew Butler 44.3 , Mike Sadler 39.8 per punt
They have the better punter, although I can't find "inside the 20" punts, which is something Sadler does really well. We have the better kicker. I think MSU has the upper hand in Special Teams, although not in a dominating way.
Advantage: MSU
Overall
UGA is a very, very good and very young team. They were the beneficiaries of an extremely nice in-season schedule not playing the best three teams in the SEC and only playing LSU in the conference title game. They do remind me a bit of the 2010 Spartans with the favorable schedule and great outcome. They will not get crushed like the 2010 Spartans did although I can always dream.
In the UGA-FLA game I watched I saw several missed tackles that were directly responsible for extending drives and overall was left with the impression that MSU might be equally as talented as Georgia, but their ability to play consistent and fundamentally sound football will be the thing that pushes MSU over the top in this one. Add to that the fact that Conroy is automatic inside of 40 yards and only missed one inside of 50 this year minus two bad holds in the YSU and FAU games and I forsee MSU outplaying Georgia significantly in the Special Teams phase of the game. MSU wins this one comfortably.
Final Score: MSU 34, Georgia 21
Nice blog, are you going to set up one for basketball as well?
ReplyDeleteWhen I was looking over the match up I was surprised to see that Georgia has had three top five recruiting classes in the last 4 years while MSU's classes ranged from 29th to 56th. It is a testament to Coach Dantonio that his player evaluations are much more accurate than the experts at Scout.
I would hope to see some trick plays utilizing Nichol and Martin. I did not realize that Keyshawn Martin would have such an amazing quarterback rating going 7 out of 8 for 140 yards two touchdowns and no picks.
I think sacks are the key, if we can keep the pressure off of Cousins while sacking Murray we should win. Cousins is exceptional when he has time to throw and will lead us to victory if given the chance.
Thanks for the compliment. No, I'll be leaving B-Ball to The Only Colors. They do a wonderful job and the odds I'd have anything to add on a regular basis are very limited. So just look for the occasional B-Ball post on this blog and LOTS of off-season football information.
ReplyDeleteWell you were right, we had 4 sacks, they had 1. That matters.
I am not sure my heart can take anymore like the last two games, life is always exciting when you are a spartan fan.
ReplyDeleteThe defense was amazing, without the three bombs they held them to under 100 yards passing. More impressive they held a team averaging 173 yards rushing to only 1.3 yards per carry, their lowest output of the season. How White had the energy to jump in the third overtime after playing the whole game at his weight is beyond me.