This is part 3b of an ambitiously stated seven part series. This series will focus on introducing MSU fans to their position group players. It is not intended to replace the quality analysis that media types can provide, but we give it our best shot. We'll work backwards from the most stable position groups to the more dynamic ones so we can write about the most volatile groups last.
Our running back situation is probably the best it's been since I started following MSU football during the days of Sedrick Irvin. We're deep at running back and we have varying skill sets at running back. This is a position of strength for MSU in 2011 and probably even moreso in 2012. This group has the ability to make right a bad day at the office.
A video is worth a 1000 words.
Edwin Baker
Baker came to Michigan State after being offered by nearly every school in the country. In 2009 he was still recovering from an ACL tear, and his carries were artificially lowered by that injury. In 2010, Baker emerged as our workhorse back sharing carries primarily with Larry Caper. His 1201 yards were good enough to make him 26th overall in yardage. Not bad for a guy splitting carries three ways. He showed himself as the most complete back of our three, expect that trend to continue this upcoming year.
2011 Prediction
Baker was the lead back in our three man rotation last year after getting picked third in the 2010 Spring game. I think that really served as a wake up call to him and it showed on the field last year. I expect Baker's improvement to continue in this upcoming year. He is an outside Heisman candidate at this point and I'd expect to see him continue playing at that level. Should he assemble a 1500 yard 15+ TDs type season I think you would see him leave for the big leagues. So I say with enthusiasm, Edwin Baker, I hope this is your last season at Michigan State. I think it will be.
Le'Veon Bell
Bell was an early enrollee in the class of 2010. He had offers from MSU and a couple of MAC Schools. His commitment led to a lot of hand-wringing by the Spartan faithful so how did he do in 2010? Well he was on the Freshman All-Big Ten Team. In fact, from here on out under-recruited overly hand-wrought types will be referred to as having the Bell effect. Bell played amazingly the first half of the year, routinely getting 6 or 7 yards on 3rd and 2, towards the end of the season he had a more difficult time picking up the same down and distance.
2011 Prediction
Bell was the surprise of MSU's football team last year, he might have been the surprise of the whole Big 10 last year. This year, I'd expect him to show a more steady effort statistically throughout the year. I'd not be surprised to see the trend be that he actually loses some of the highs as he learns to run smarter protecting himself from injury a bit better but that will make him a lot more effective later in the season. Last year he went for 605 yards and 8 TDs. This year I expect to see 800 yards and 10 TDs.
Larry Caper
Larry Caper was our workhorse back in 2009 as a true freshman. He really carried the load for our team in the first half of the season. As Baker's injury healed up mid-way through 2009 the workload got distributed more evenly. In 2010, the script was flipped, Baker was healthy the whole season while Caper was injured early on and ended up as the third of our three back rotation. In 2010, Caper emerged more as a third down back and receiving threat which is the one thing he definitely did as well as Bell and Baker in 2010.
2011 Prediction
The murmurs out of fall practice are that Caper is back and is ready to play some football and as good as any of our other RBs. I have a hard time seeing us playing a three back rotation where all three backs get 33 percent of the carries and I have this weird feeling that Caper will be the one left out. His prowess as a receiving threat might make him the go-to back on 3rd and more than 3. He also could see a lot of fourth quarter carries as a fresh set of legs this upcoming year. I'm rooting for this kid a lot actually, between him and Bell I think there's a real pair of fan favorites.
Nick Hill
Nick Hill came to Michigan State as a member of the class of 2010. He had a single redeemable offer good at any MAC school, Stanford and MSU. He was redshirted last year and that was pretty much it for him.
2011 Prediction
This year he figures to be a factor on kick returns and maybe see sometime as a change-of-pace back. I think his carries will be limited this year on account of the logjam in front of him. I like Hill a lot, but if Baker doesn't leave after this year, I think Hill is a likely candidate to transfer. He's too talented to be the fourth string guy, but not talented enough to be a huge figure in the three headed tailback monster.
Jeremy Langford
Jeremy Langford came to Michigan State as a member of the class of 2010. He had a single redeemable offer good at any MAC school, Colorado and MSU. He attended the same school as Keshawn Martin and is faster in a straight line according to his AD. Not as good in and out of cuts.
2011 Prediction
This year he figures to be a factor on kick returns. He's really an athlete as much as anything though, so maybe next year he's a DB, this year he's a running back, maybe he's a WR in a couple years following. I think any 2011 contribution will be limited to purely special teams.
Worst Case Scenario: Our depth at running back is superior not just in the Big Ten but nationally. I think you'd need to have three season ending injuries before Nick Hill or whoever the survivor is would be being asked to do too much. Worst Case Scenario - Two of our starters go down early in the season and the offense doesn't recover.
Best Case Scenario: Baker moves from being an outside Heisman candidate to actually a Heisman candidate without the qualifier. Bell continues as our Caulcrick battering ram. Caper emerges as a true third down threat on every play. Nick Hill sees time in the fourth salting leads away and as our home run threat. The running backs group combines for 2500 yards and 30+ TDs. This is not as unlikely as I think we'd all think. Last year they all combined for 2300 yards and 23 TDs and we STILL had trouble on 3rd and short as the season wore on.
Overall Assessment:The running back position is at an unprecedented level of depth since I started following MSU football. This position group will make our offense successful this year as opposed to being successful because of our offense. I honestly expect the "Best Case Scenario" this year. I think this group is that good. Baker will do well enough to play on Sundays in 2012 and Caper, Bell and Hill will shine with their moments in the sun this year. This is going to be fun. In the words of TO "Getcha Popcorn Ready!"
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