I'm taking a break from Assume the Position today, if I don't get some work done, I'll be assuming the position later on this week with my boss.
I've always thought that preseason rankings are crap. This appears to be a widely held belief among many people who believe in science, logic and all other things represented by sanity and not magic. I find this year's preseason ranking of our Spartans about as exciting as all of the mosquitoes that have returned to mid-Michigan in the past couple of weeks. On a side note, it's occasionally difficult not to cackle with glee when the light is making mosquito popcorn outside.
The Spartans are exiting the preseason ranked 17th according to the USA Today poll. In the last nine years the 17th ranked team in the USA Today Poll has finished 9-4, 9-4, 11-3, 12-1, 11-3, 9-3, 8-4, 10-3(Oh Minnesota, you had Glen Mason and he made magic out of manure for you) and 10-3. The Preseason 17th ranked team has finished ranked two of the nine years, once 6th and once 21st. If you take the W-L records of those teams that would average out to 10-3 for us this if we finished ranked 17th. The W-L records of those who were preseason 17 are as follows: 6-7, 12-1(ranked), 11-2(ranked), 6-7, 6-7 , 5-6, 5-6, 8-5, and 7-6. Applied to this year's schedule that averages out to: 8-5. So what does all this mean? Precisely Diddley.
Therein lies the problem. If we finished 17th that mentally correlates to being the best 9-4 team in college football(bowl win), an average 10-3 team(maybe a bowl win or good loss) or the worst 11-2 team(bowl game spanking) in college football. I personally don't like being the worst 11-2 team in College Football, I'd rather be the 10-3 or 9-4 team, it's more representative of who you are.* Yet, recent past history points to what we should expect this year is a team that goes 8-5 with a lot of boom or bust potential for 6-7 or 11-2.
- Note: That line of thinking is waived if we make or win the Rose Bowl or the National Title game.I'm good with being the worst undefeated team in College Football going into the National Title game.
This ultimately is my reason for not appreciating the magic behind preseason rankings. They're not reliable and in the case of the 17th rank in the USA today poll since 2002, they're more predictive that your team will not finish ranked than that they will. I'd be thrilled with a 10-3 season as the final 17th ranking would predict for these Spartans. I'd be pretty unimpressed with an 8-5 finish particularly if that did not include a bowl win. Yet, that's what the ranking over the last nine years truly predicts for a 13 game season.
So Spartan fans, expect 8-5 and love you some 10-3 or better when it comes. Tell your Michigan rooting neighbor that being ranked 17th for us or anyone else is crap and if they press the point ask them how being ranked helped them lose to us 34-17 last year when they "outranked" us. And should things come unglued and some moron on Big Ten Network is discussing how our season exploded if we're 5-5 playing Indiana on November 19th, know that our average is still within reach OR if we drop the last two and finish 5-7 we're not the first, or the last to suffer the Preseason Ranking affliction. Finally, if we P4RB the way we know how we have good company in our friends from TCU and BYU who have taken their 17th Preseason Ranking and achieved anyway!Think Lebowski In short or long, the preseason rankings, mean nothing and are nothing. If you're going to enjoy any magic, enjoy the magic of a college football game.
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