MSU - Wisconsin: We Don't Need a Rivalry Trophy

It was a very long and quiet ride home last night. My friends and I pulled into town said our goodbyes at 5:00 am and went to bed. I woke up this morning and the weather was dingy and gray which of course did not instantly improve the mood. Caffeine on a mainline was a move in the right direction, but still, slow going. The BCS is a disaster as usual, featuring a game no one wants to see, as usual. It's really hard to feel good, great or even morally victorous about the game I watched last night. Yet, I do feel those things in fits and starts.

When the Bielema presser opened last night, his first comment was: "I was reading a lot about how Michigan State was preparing for the Rose Bowl, we were just preparing for Michigan State." Honestly, I could understand Bielema's confusion since he hadn't actually won the Big Ten outright before, he might not know what happens next. ZING! I was mildly concerned about this after reading Dantonio put roses in the player's lockers on Friday. MSU didn't look past Wisconsin though anymore that Wisconsin looked past them. These two teams are the best two teams in the Big Ten and in my opinion it isn't even close.

Since Mark Dantonio and Bret Bielema started playing each other the average margin of victory has been 5.2 points per game.  Dantonio has shown no qualms about rolling out the old cliche, "Football is a game of inches" basically every ten minutes for the past few years. This rivalry is an excellent example of that cliche and this game was an excellent example of this rivalry. Between both MSU and Wisconsin, there were probably a dozen plays where less than a foot made the difference between who wins the Stagg trophy and who goes to the Outback Bowl.

To get into game theory in this post feels wrong, except for the much maligned punt block call. Several people on Twitter were gnashing their teeth over the stupidity of this call. To me, you couldn't have called that any differently. Mark Dantonio is not in the business of playing not to lose games, he's in the business of winning them. You don't win games by not trusting your best players to make plays. The play didn't work, but it was the right call.

The goals of Michigan State Football should be in this order: 1.) Play in and win the Rose Bowl. 2.) Everything else. After 12 games, 58 minutes and 27 seconds Goal Number 1 finally eluded our grasp. Now it is time to begin preparing for Goal Number 2, beating our bowl opponent and getting the Bowl Win monkey off our back. On January 3rd, we can begin preparing for the 2012 season's Rose Bowl.

This game is a real rivalry and I fully support Bielema's notion to create a trophy. If I were feeling cockier this morning, I'd say you could skip a new trophy though, because the Stagg one works just fine. If 2007, 2008, 2010 and 2011 parts one and two are indicative of the next ten years of MSU-Wisconsin football, this rivalry is not going away and you will be treated to some of the best football games a person can watch in the coming years. Luckily our road to next year's Rose Bowl runs through Madison and if MSU gets to deliver a little payback on it's way, I'll be happy to watch.

Quick Meta Note: I gots me lots of catch-up to do in areas of life not related to College Football Blogging. Updates will be pretty sparse until after December 22nd when I'm off for the rest of the year. When we come back, we'll have probably another Wisky film review, a preview with our Bowl Opponent. Until then, it's going to be pretty random what goes on the blog. Follow us on twitter by banging the link to the right for more microbloggy updates.

MSU-Wisconsin Film Review: Round One, Quarter Four

This is part two of the original MSU-Wisconsin Game, Film Review. You can check out part one over here, part two over here and part three over here The score is 23-17 MSU and the ten minute drive has begun. Despite the relatively small lead, MSU feels in control here.

Playing the drums upside down. Ballin'

Cousins to Cunningham

This is how B.J. Cunningham catches a 2 pt. conversion. Throws don't get more disgustingly good than that.

Okay, Why All The Theatrics? Why Not Just Run The Clock Down?

Well, we tried and failed. In this example, Bell lines up in the backfield and the play is a stretch run to the strongside. The Wide Receiver at the bottom of the screen is Keshawn Martin, not our best blocking WR.

 The play starts and the Weakside DE stays home to prevent the cutback. The rest of the Badgers Defensive Line and both linebackers roll towards the bottom of the screen to push the play out of bounds.

 In the early goings of the play, four offensive linemen plus Linthicum are engaged by three Badgers DL. This leaves their linebackers free to run right to where Bell is going.

 Finally, Linthicum gets loose and goes to engage the Strongside Linebacker.

The Strongside Linebacker engages Linthicum while the Badgers keep rolling towards the bottom of the screen.

Bell runs to his already closed gap and this play is basically over before it starts. He's tackled for a gain of one.

The Amazing Wisconsin Runs in the Fourth Quarter to Tie Up The Game


Ball for 22

How does someone stop Bullough from getting Ball in that gap? Holding.

Russell Wilson, You Magnificent Bastard

The pocket is warm and cozy, but everyone is covered.

So Wilson takes off to his right.

The blur on the right hand side is Isaiah Lewis. Wilson has just pump faked and Lewis jumps to block the pass.  Lewis is the only guy between Wilson and the end zone. So Wilson runs it in for 22 yards. I do not hope to see more of this.

Other Thoughts of a Narrative Sort

- The touchdown throw to put MSU up 31-17 was a 3 yard hitch on 3rd and 11 to Keshawn Martin. The fans and such rip on Roushar and Cousins incessantly for this play, but this time it worked. Commence firing away after this play doesn't work the second time Saturday, but this time it did. Conversely, when MSU gets the ball back with 8 minutes left, Roushar dials up playaction on 1st and 10. Kirk Herbstreit says, "Interesting playcall." That's also what he says when I'm throwing in the fourth quarter dumbly in NCAA.  Then Roushar calls the shovel pass on 3rd and 8 and looks like a genius again.

- In the fourth quarter with 9:14 to go Cousins was 16/19 for 202 and 2 TDs. It is SO Vitally Important to keep him in a manageable down and distance. I cannot stress this enough, when he doesn't have to sweat completing passes, he's damn near unstoppable. When you put him behind, which is what happens immediately following, he misses his next four passes.

- For all the Harumph-ing about how Wisconsin whipped our asses at the end of the fourth quarter I will say this. The drive to make it 31-24 started at the MSU 43. You should score with Russell Wilson and Montee Ball on that short of a field. On the drive to tie it at 31, Wilson finds Ewing for 11 on a broken play and then on the next play Toon for 42. In both cases, he had no less than five seconds to throw. I'm not saying they didn't earn their two touchdowns, but you are talking about a short field and a 42 yard play to make it close.

Because I Can't Resist

 

MSU-Wisconsin Film Review: Round One, Quarter Three

This is part two of the original MSU-Wisconsin Game, Film Review. You can check out part one over here and part two over here. The score is 23-14 MSU and State is rolling.

The Unstoppable Force Meets the Immovable Object
 

Did you expect it to yield anything else?

This quarter was fairly unremarkable. Neither team caught the other napping with some gimmicky crap. Wisconsin quit that line-rolling business they were doing in the first quarter and at the end of the quarter only three points were scored. If you needed to catch a nap, this was the time to do it.

The Roushar(H/T to Chris Vannini)

I honestly cannot recall having seen this formation before, ever. Follower Supernosh said it's called a broken wishbone. I have no reason not to believe him, but this is just goofy.

 Even stranger yet is that when the play starts Linthicum who is the "fullback" here, just stands still.

 He waits for Foreman and France to clear him a three dude wide hole and then he takes off above.

Linthicum is the streak at the center of your screen. Weirdly instead of running for the sticks he moves out into the the flat, or maybe the "flat-north", they end up picking up nine, which is great for 3rd and 8 or less. I don't know what the hell that formation was or if it was just an accident, but it was an interesting play call all the same.

The SpartyCat

 Musberger calls this a Wildcat which IIRC is wrong. This is a direct snap to LeVeon Bell who has the option to hand off to Martin on a Jet Sweep. It would be a wildcat if Bell had Baker next to him and could hand off to either Baker or Martin or keep it himself.

 In any case, Bell keeps it himself. I'm not sure what his key is to tell him to make this decision, but it is what he does.

 One of my complaints when I did picture pages of the ND game and the unbalanced line was not that it didn't work because it was stupid. It didn't work because our OL didn't know who to block and because of that we started running to the weak side. Which kind of negates the point. I bring this up because all three dudes with the red arrow running over their head were blocking one guy out of the play. Bell tries to cut it up the hole. If he had handed off to Keshawn this play might have gone for 7-8 yards, but not much more because the spartan at the top of the screen is Kirk Cousins and he's not gonna run block anyone out of the way for you. Which begs the question, why run to his side at all, but I digress.

A Few Narrative Observations

- None others really. When Bell is in the game our running is better. It's simply not deniable.

- Cousins continues to have an excellent game.

MSU - Wisconsin Film Review: Round One, Quarter Two

This is part two of the original MSU-Wisconsin Game, Film Review. You can check out part one over here. The score is 14-0 Wisconsin, but MSU has stopped the bleeding and is getting some life in them.

Overpursue Much?

The reason this double end around worked so well is that the Badgers were overpursuing like mad cows. They all go to kill Cunningham on the end around and he simply hands off to Martin. Martin goes the other way and there are five people waiting to kill Aaron Henry. Poor Aaron Henry.

Cousins Continues to Ball Out

 Five Badgers, none close, but a bit of a scary throw.

The touch on both of these throws is outstanding. He has to jimmy it into the hole in the zone and he and Linthicum do a great job working together to find it.

 Here's the Cunningham TD on 4th and 2. That's the window Cousins threw it into. Ridiculous. Utterly ridiculous.

The Amazing Russell Wilson

If Russell Wilson wasn't a quarterback, he'd be doing something else amazing. This stiff arm of Johnny Adams was vicious.

Punt Block

 Here's the Punt Formation.

  
This play worked because four dudes broke through Wisconsin's line 1 and it forced the dude on the right side of Wisconsin's line 2 to have to pick between Elsworth and I think it was Fowler. It isn't the guys in line 2 that allowed the punt block, it was the guys from line 1.

A Few Other Narrative Observations from the Second Quarter


- I make fun of Bielema because I think he's a bit of a jerk and a meathead. The most compelling reason to make fun of Bielema for me though is that he is a perfect nemesis for a blog like this one. I mention this because it's important to separate the criticism for LOLs from the criticism I'm about to drop.

Montee Ball was plainly concussed after getting hit in the dome by Trenton Robinson. The momentum in this game switched from MSU cowering in the fetal position while being kicked by a bunch of manchildren to MSU hulk-smashing it's way through Wisconsin title hopes. I understand that Bielema knew if he lost this game a National Title berth was probably out the window. That said, putting Ball back in the game at the beginning of the third quarter was inexcusable. Concussions are linked to a bevy of really bad stuff. While I'm sure they are a part of the game, it's unacceptable to me to put Ball back in there.

- Worthy got away with an offsides on the play to set up the Safety. He started pulling out of his stance before the ball is snapped. He's done this all season long and honestly, that's fine with me. It works as often as not. MSU needs him to sit on that razor's edge again on Saturday night. With Wisconsin's all-college center Peter Konz likely out and certainly injured, he needs to disrupt the middle of the line early and often.

- On the blocked Field Goal, Welch Wisconsin's kicker, seemed dawdly to me. It looked like Moorman, their punter, struggled to get the ball down quickly. Nice play by Dennard to streak in there and take advantage of the extra half second.

- Denicos Allen was a machine in the second quarter. He forced the Intentional Grounding/Safety by Russell Wilson as well as sacked him later in the quarter. He was in yo backfield snatching yo people up. More of that in the title game, please.

End of the half, MSU 23 Wisconsin 14. The vaunted Badgers Offense gets zero points and 63 yards. The Badgers Special Teams are playing in a very "Special" way.

MSU-Wisconsin Film Review: Round One, Quarter One

And It Begins....

This is going to be a set of picture pages of things that both MSU and Wisconsin did well in the first match-up of this game. I wanted to do a UFR  a la MGoBlog, but honestly I don't make a dime off this site and it would mean turning away paying work at my day job. So picture pages it is.

Cutback Runs

In the first quarter, Wisconsin killed us to death on the cutback runs. They did this by moving the line one way while having Ball run the other.

 Pre-Play

 The entire Offensive Line slides right except the Tight End who stays up to deal with Marcus Rush.

 Ball takes the handoff, and the tight end blocks Rush out of the play. Ball doesn't go for the homerun he just runs slightly off the Left Tackle.

This gives Norman a difficult choice to make. Does he try to stop the coming cutback run and risk bouncing Ball to the outside or does he step up and fill the grand canyon size hole in front of him and let Ball cut it back inside. He elects to stop the bounce to the outside and ends up tackling Ball for about four yards.

Cousins Ballin' Out
Cousins down 14-0 on the second play of the game and the first play after the fumble completes a zinger of a 15 yard out.

As much as I have been a bit guilty of ragging on Cousins, this throw is perfect. A foot behind and the DB knocks it away, two feet ahead and Martin goes out of bounds before coming down with the ball. First down.

Bell Does The Little Things

In this instance, number 26 has a great angle to tackle Bell at the MSU 47.

Bell stuttersteps freezing 26.

26 misses the tackle at the MSU 48 which is where he was aiming to hit Bell.

Bell slips past and eventually gets brought down at the Wisconsin 45.  He buys himself an extra 7-8 yards on that stutterstep.


A Few Other Narrative Observations from the First Quarter

- I'm not going to picture snap the Baker fumble. It was sloppy ball security for Baker. Cromartie was out of bounds when he jumped back on the ball, but I don't see how they could overturn that. It's simple, that kind of mistake can't occur on Saturday. Wisconsin is too good for that kind of stuff to happen.

- Montee Ball is VERY slippery. He does a really nice job greasing himself through tiny creases. If there's a gap occupied only by arm tackles there's a great chance he's going to get through there.

- MSU came out using the pass to set up the run after the Baker fumble. The first three plays were pass plays that were Keshawn +14 yards, Cousins Sack - 8, Cunningham + 20. After that MSU ran left, then right for a total of -4. Since this game LeVeon Bell has taken over as the starting running back and I firmly believe that in these two plays Bell would have picked up a few yards. Baker was looking for the homerun, not to get 2-3 yards. So it's 3rd and 14 instead of 3rd and 7. Cousins goes on to throw only 3 yards to Keshawn Martin, but 3rd and 14 is rough.

- James White is a significant the drop off from Montee Ball. I mean very VERY significant. Ball's combination of vision and slipperiness is what was making those cutback runs work. White just doesn't have that same vision. If MSU can force Wisconsin to start rotating White in, they can divert a significant amount of attention to Russell Wilson.

- After the first two series Wisconsin kind of got away from the Offensive Line sliding they were doing. I'm not really sure why. I'd think by forcing people into a position to side tackle that ball security becomes a bit of an issue? This was working well for them.

- On the Robinson interception, Nick Toon didn't look for the ball as he should have. This wasn't on Wilson at least not completely.

End of the 1st, Wisconsin 14 MSU 0.

Big Ten Division Champs Season Statistical Review

In case you haven't heard MSU plays Wisconsin in the first Big Ten title game next Saturday at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. Before we really delve into Hate Week over the next few days let's step back and look at the stats for the season. The stats are going to be important because the storyline of this game is reading as MSU stole the game from Wisconsin in October. So this is the post where we step back and look at the aggregate for the season and see just how hot the water will be on Saturday.

Season Records At A Glance


Well that's pretty even Steven. We lost an extra game to a ranked opponent but we also played an extra ranked team. So in short, swap out Notre Dame for a Bielema cuppycake and we're 2-1 against ranked opponents too.

Rushing Stats At A Glance


Wisconsin is clearly a better rushing team than MSU. This should be no surprise either. Montee Ball would have already won the Heisman if he played in the SEC. He is on pace to break Barry Sanders single season rushing touchdown records. In losses, both teams fall relatively apart in the rushing game. In a loss Wisconsin goes from averaging 4 rushing touchdowns a game to 1.5 and from averaging 5.81 yards per carry to 4.41. In losses, MSU goes from averaging 3.92 yards per carry to 2.45 and has scored zero rushing touchdowns.
Passing Stats At A Glance


The passing game of Kirk Cousins and Russell Wilson are not really comparable in terms of the stat sheet. Wilson has a 28-3 TD to Int ratio with his last interception being thrown to Isaiah Lewis in the second half of the MSU-Wisconsin game. Since then he's had a totally clean sheet. Wilson is on pace to shatter the NCAA record for passing efficiency set by Colt Brennan of Hawaii at 180.6. Wilson's rating of 192.9 looks like he is a lock to win that record. Wilson averages out to 2.33 TDs and .25 picks per game while Cousins averages out to 1.75 TDs and .5 picks per game. In short, both quarterbacks take excellent care of the ball.
Defensive Stats At A Glance


Well, this also shouldn't come as a surprise. While Michigan State and Wisconsin only have a difference of .25 ppg in total scoring defense. MSU is far more dominant in the passing game defense accumulating an additional 15 sacks, 21 QB hurries and 2 interceptions. (BTW, did you know MSU picked off Russell Wilson twice?). Despite all that, Wisconsin has yielded only 9 passing touchdowns this year. The two teams look pretty evenly matched in running defense, MSU yields fewer yards per game, but Wisconsin edges out MSU in the other rushing defense categories. In short I think MSU's passing defense is slightly better than Wisconsin's and the rushing defense is more or less equal.

So how David and Goliath is this match-up? Think of it like this. If MSU's Offense is a 6, Wisconsin's is a 9 on a scale of 1 to 10. If MSU's defense is a 9, Wisconsin's is an 8. Given the season so far.  Some remarkable factors as it relates to the MSU-Wisky Round One game. Wisconsin yielded 1/3 of their TOTAL passing touchdowns for the year in that game. Russell Wilson threw 2/3rds of his interceptions for the year in that game.  MSU certainly has it's work cut out for it.