Sunday, November 27, 2011

Big Ten Division Champs Season Statistical Review

In case you haven't heard MSU plays Wisconsin in the first Big Ten title game next Saturday at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. Before we really delve into Hate Week over the next few days let's step back and look at the stats for the season. The stats are going to be important because the storyline of this game is reading as MSU stole the game from Wisconsin in October. So this is the post where we step back and look at the aggregate for the season and see just how hot the water will be on Saturday.

Season Records At A Glance


Well that's pretty even Steven. We lost an extra game to a ranked opponent but we also played an extra ranked team. So in short, swap out Notre Dame for a Bielema cuppycake and we're 2-1 against ranked opponents too.

Rushing Stats At A Glance


Wisconsin is clearly a better rushing team than MSU. This should be no surprise either. Montee Ball would have already won the Heisman if he played in the SEC. He is on pace to break Barry Sanders single season rushing touchdown records. In losses, both teams fall relatively apart in the rushing game. In a loss Wisconsin goes from averaging 4 rushing touchdowns a game to 1.5 and from averaging 5.81 yards per carry to 4.41. In losses, MSU goes from averaging 3.92 yards per carry to 2.45 and has scored zero rushing touchdowns.
Passing Stats At A Glance


The passing game of Kirk Cousins and Russell Wilson are not really comparable in terms of the stat sheet. Wilson has a 28-3 TD to Int ratio with his last interception being thrown to Isaiah Lewis in the second half of the MSU-Wisconsin game. Since then he's had a totally clean sheet. Wilson is on pace to shatter the NCAA record for passing efficiency set by Colt Brennan of Hawaii at 180.6. Wilson's rating of 192.9 looks like he is a lock to win that record. Wilson averages out to 2.33 TDs and .25 picks per game while Cousins averages out to 1.75 TDs and .5 picks per game. In short, both quarterbacks take excellent care of the ball.
Defensive Stats At A Glance


Well, this also shouldn't come as a surprise. While Michigan State and Wisconsin only have a difference of .25 ppg in total scoring defense. MSU is far more dominant in the passing game defense accumulating an additional 15 sacks, 21 QB hurries and 2 interceptions. (BTW, did you know MSU picked off Russell Wilson twice?). Despite all that, Wisconsin has yielded only 9 passing touchdowns this year. The two teams look pretty evenly matched in running defense, MSU yields fewer yards per game, but Wisconsin edges out MSU in the other rushing defense categories. In short I think MSU's passing defense is slightly better than Wisconsin's and the rushing defense is more or less equal.

So how David and Goliath is this match-up? Think of it like this. If MSU's Offense is a 6, Wisconsin's is a 9 on a scale of 1 to 10. If MSU's defense is a 9, Wisconsin's is an 8. Given the season so far.  Some remarkable factors as it relates to the MSU-Wisky Round One game. Wisconsin yielded 1/3 of their TOTAL passing touchdowns for the year in that game. Russell Wilson threw 2/3rds of his interceptions for the year in that game.  MSU certainly has it's work cut out for it.

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