MSU and the Case of the Disappearing Fullback

Niko Palazeti committed to Michigan State as a fullback on 2/1/2010. This may have been the end of an era for Michigan State's football program. I think Palazeti will be the last four year scholarship fullback to come through the Duffy Daughtery building.

Nothing against the kid, I'm sure he'll do a fine job in the Green and White and looked very good in relief of Todd Anderson in FAU-type garbage time this year. It's just, the Fullback is an endangered species in football in general. Oh sure, they've found niche roles in the biocommunity of college football on teams like Michigan State, but I think even now they're starting to disappear from these teams as well.

Why, might you ask?

I'm so glad you did, even though you didn't really. First and foremost, the game of football has changed significantly since the 70s and 80s. The responsibility of the fullback is two fold. First on a run play, they are supposed to get out and hit a linebacker to provide blocking for the running back. Second, on a pass play, they are responsible for doing one of two things, they can either block for the Quarterback OR they can slide out into the flat and act as the QB safety valve.

Interesting Note: The first offensive play of the Dantonio era was a play action pass to the fullback, Andrew Hawken.

Since the 70s and 80s, the pass coverage responsibilities of the Linebackers have increased substantially since the advent of the West Coast Offense. In the West Coast Offense, it was discovered that more than two dudes can try to catch a pass at one time. So linebackers have gotten faster and smaller. This presents a problem for guys who play the slower and bulkier fullback position as they're responsible for putting a hit on these guys in the run game.

In the pass game, the fullback can still pass block, but again with the smaller linebackers, running backs have been asked to do more in pass blocking and as it concerns running out into the flat to catch a safety valve pass for the QBs you'd want the quicker, faster running backs catching those passes as well.

None of the reasons listed above are the most important though, not for MSU anyway


Running Example

MSU used this constantly in the MSU - Wisconsin Round 1 game.

MSU lines up in a single back, Two TE set.  Linthicum lines up left of France.

Linthicum goes in motion, this at the very least does one thing for Cousins. It lets him know whether Linthicum is in man coverage or a zone if the linebacker tries to stay with him or not.

A couple times Linthicum went right back to where he started out and Cousins jumped with glee knowing whether he was looking at zone or man.

Much more often, Linthicum lined up in the fullback spot and now the Single Back Two TE set became a strong I formation with lots of run blocking for the running back. The nice thing is that as soon as Linthicum was set Cousins would snap. This was a really nice way to set up strong run blocking for the RB without tipping our hand run until the last possible moment.

Off Bell or Baker would go for a few yards.

Passing Example

This happened more often as the season wore on, but typically it was Anderson(the FB) "playing" TE. It typically happened in 3rd and short to 3rd and short-medium. Think between 3rd and 3 and 3rd and 5.

MSU starts out in the strong I.

Anderson motions left and lines up just behind Cunningham or whoever.

MSU managed to conceal their 4 WR look out of the huddle up until a moment or two prior to the snap. This forces the opposing defense to adjust prior to the play.

The QB drops back into the shotgun and now a 3rd and 4 has changed from the look of a strong run play into a strong pass play.

So What Does This Mean?

Dan Roushar runs a misdirection offense that relies on concealing the true intent of a play until seconds before the snap. One of the easiest ways to play with the look of a play is to move a TE into the fullback spot a second or two prior to the snap or to move a fullback into a WR spot seconds prior to the snap.  The role of a traditional fullback has disappeared on any spread team and is even disappearing in a more traditional offense like MSU runs.

So for my own part, I wish Palazeti and any other fullback to come to MSU the best of luck at the position. I just found myself wondering if he would be the last four year scholarship recruit at the position. We'll see how much more time Roushar spends using this misdirection in 2012.

Update Now With H-Back!

Ok, so for a couple of year 

Outback Bowl: Quick Review

How did the game go?

Well MSU looked amazing once the Offense got off the bus in the third quarter. Hondo tweeted, not while driving I'm sure, that the traffic going to the Outback Bowl was awful. I can't believe the whole first half got played before the O showed up, but I'm sure glad they did.

More seriously though, this game was completely a microcosm of MSU's season. No or inconsistent offense all through the first 2/3rds of the season game. Stifling defense all through the season game. Good to great special teams all through the season game.

Sacks

Remember how Cousins was under fire the whole first half? Well, he only got sacked once. This had less to do with the Offensive Line which substituted McGaha to help France figure out what to do... which like luv u McGaha, but WTF. Our tackles were lost and hadn't played a 3-4 worth a shit since ND. It took them almost 3 quarters to figure out WTF was going on. Meanwhile, our D-Line rattled the shit out of Murray for four sacks and a host of bad throws. Well played.


Anthony Rashad White

When he was playing out of his gourd in the first and second quarters and I figured he'd be exhausted by the fourth quarter. But the MSU D-Line just looked better and better as the game moved along. He was a mountain of a man who was an example of his unit today. Gholston was outstanding, Worthy was outstanding, Rush was outstanding. Outstanding game across the board by the DL. Drone was huge. This unit could not have played better in my opinion. KJ from the not so reclined position in his living room noted that 24 percent of plays resulted in a tackle for loss. This is legendary.

Dan Roushar

A great point made by LVSatTOC, Roushar called plays super craptabulous in the first half, but made outstanding adjustments in the second half to put MSU in a position to win. I still think he abandons his gameplan TOO quickly and that's something he should work on in the offseason. He got MSU the points he needed to win the game.

Points for Later Film Dissection

• Why did pass pro improve so much from the first half to the second?
• How did UGA so effectively shut down Bell?
• Why was MSU's D-Line so effective at getting through UGA's O-Line? 

Great win and a needed win. Now time to recruit Worthy(difficult) and Adams(much easier) to stay. More substantive implications for 2012 season coming a bit later this week. What a great win for MSU.

Michigan State: A Power Running Team?

So yesterday I got all "get off my lawn you damned whippersnappers" about the lack of identity within the Michigan State offense. I recanted a better time in 2007 when MSU converted all of it's third downs by running the ball down the opposition's throat. It seems unfair to level this criticism without some research to back it up.

I tried to think of a question that would provide a strong indicator to what the "identity" of an offense is and landed on this one. Since 2007, on 3rd and 4th down with 3 or fewer yards to go, what type of play does Michigan State run and how often is it successful? If you believe in your running game, I think this is a makeable down and distance. If you are skittish about your running game, I think this you'll see a lot of passing.

The stats were constructed taking the results of plays on 3rd and 4th down with 3 or less to go. They were only taken in Big Ten games to try and remove some of the fluff in non-conference games. Results are tabulated using ESPN play-by-play. Note: Discovered cfbstats about seven seconds ago, will probably use that in the future. The stars indicate a missing game. In 2007 it was Indiana, in 2008 it was Wisconsin, in 2009 it was Minnesota. An obvious issue is small sample size. 20 or 30 of something over 8 games is not really a lot. Second issue is that we've played the meat of our schedule in 2011 so there will be some fluff going forward or at least, I hope so.



So what does this tell us?

- First, I was half right about 2007. When we ran we converted 80 percent of our third and shorts in 2007, but we didn't run as often as I remembered. We only ran 45 percent of the time on 3rd and short in 2007 we just happened to be successful nearly every time.

- Next, MSU is having it's worst 3rd down rushing conversion percentage of the Mark Dantonio era in 2011. Again, this might be because we've played the meat of our schedule and things should only get easier from here. Also, our offensive line is not bad, but not the manbeasts we were expecting by year 5. With the exception of 2009 we haven't had a year below 58 percent. This year we're at 33 percent.

- I think the sheer number of 3rd and shorts is important too. In 2007 MSU had 33 3rd and shorts, in 2010 it was 29, in 2008 it was 26 and 2011 is projecting 26, in 2009 we had 16.

In these situations, we've run more than passed in 2008, 2009 and 2010. In 2007 we passed more than ran. In 2011, we have yet to play three spread teams with weak rushing defenses and Iowa, who's down, but still Iowa. I suspect the balance will end up at the end of the Big Ten season slightly in favor of rushing over passing.

So in this particular metric is Michigan State a power running team at least in terms of play selection? For the last three years and projected over this year, yes, anywhere from marginally (2008 and 2011) to definitely (2009 and 2010). The question might instead be after 2007's third and short success on third down, should we be?

Anyway, leave comments or areas for improved study below, stats was a long time and many hoppy beverages ago

Nebraska Recap: An Offensive Look in the Mirror

Michigan State has not had an offensive identity since 2007 with Ringer and Caulcrick. In 2007, you knew what was coming, running on running downs, passing on passing downs. 3rd and 3 meant a run of some sort, we go for it on 4th and 1. And you know the hell what? We averaged 33 ppg that year. There was none of this flim-flam about trying to fake people out with pass plays on running downs. It was kept simple, KISSed even.

On Saturday, MSU had two runs on third down, both successful. One was a designed run on 3rd and 2, the other a broken play Cousins scramble for a first down. The remaining 12 third down attempts were pass attempts. I don't have time to pull together all of the 3rd and shorts from this season, but how many times have we gone 5 wide on 3rd and short this season? More than two or three? Then it's too many. How many times have we lined up to run right on a critical third down to toss misdirection and run to the weakside?

I don't mean to get after Roushar about this, this was happening in a more controlled fashion under Treadwell too. Roushar had a bad day at the office on Saturday, I've had them, you've had them, that's fine. He hasn't been an OC since 2004, I bet there's a learning curve on that. This offensive identity crisis is something I've noticed for a while now and just had enough of this weekend.

So why mess with what's mostly working? Well, we're off to Iowa in 2 weeks. A place we haven't won a game since back when Jebediah Springfield settled Iowa City back in 1407. Our coaches need to put our players into a position to run for five yards on First Down and say "Hi, I'm Edwin Baker, I'll be running the ball down your damn throat for the next three hours." If we win at Iowa, I think we go to the B1G Title Game. SO WE HAVE TO WIN AT IOWA.

Fix the run game, rather, make the run game something to be feared and respected. It will make our offense something to be feared and respected. If you don't know who you are, how are you going to tell them who just whupped them up?

End Rant.

PS Congrats to Will Gholston on his 15 tackles and 2 sacks and whatever. He's dreamy.

Game Preview: CMU

So in case you haven't yet heard, the sky is falling. Maybe it has even fallen. Maybe this is the beginning of hell on earth with the the cold approaching and the stock market in shambles and an offensive line made out of all of the dudes in East Lansing that are taller than 6'4" and more than 300 lbs. If in spite of all that you feel the need to carry on this blog post is for you.

OR

Perhaps you saw us make some mistakes in South Bend last week which assisted in creating a pretty lop-sided score of 31-13. Further the Irish front seven is the biggest we'll play this whole season, which made them perfectly suited to captialize on our decimated Offensive Line. Perhaps you still see 9-3 or 8-4 as a possibility for this year. If so this blog post is for you.

The bad part for me is that these people both live inside my head regarding Spartan Football and that's what makes games like this one Saturday kind of frightening to me. Michigan State's season is far from over, but it sure felt that way for a bit on Saturday. The Chips flatly frighten me a bit, they've won three out of seven in our series thus far. Our protected rival Indiana has a worse winning percentage against us than Central by ALMOST 20 PERCENT. So despite the fact that Central is a bit down in the mouth this year, if you sleep on Central, they will kill you.

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Central Passing Defense vs MSU Passing Offense

As with anything offense-related, until further notice this is dependent on the Offensive Line. This will be a good time for our Offensive Line to spend sometime trying to gel its reincarnation into something purposeful and passable. The Offensive Line will be featuring two new starters, Travis Jackson, who impressed strongly in the offseason and Fou Fonoti who first set foot on campus in July. We're currently an injury away from calling TJ Duckett and asking him to come back and play Offensive Line for us.

Alex Carder, the greatest quarterback in the history of Michigan-based football took Central to the woodshed last week putting up 355 yards and 3 Touchdowns. Cousins will not have this kind of a day passing on CMU because we are not looking to wax our rivals like Western was AND Dantonio has stated that he is committed to establishing the run, which of course means not teeing off on Central for 355 yards and 3 TDs.

Provided we don't have more Offensive Line injury and/or magnificent Offensive Line failure expect to see Cousins go like 17 of 22 for 200 and a TD.

Advantage: MSU(but not by a lot).

Central Rushing Defense vs MSU Rushing Offense

Now all that said, I'm less concerned about our Offensive Line in this arena. McDonald and Foreman have proven themselves to be good pulling guards and effective against the run. Todd Anderson is mean, I'm pretty sure he's like the bunny who ate broken glass. These individuals can help bolster running to one side or the other of the field. Oh yeah, our tailbacks are none too shabby either.

I expect to see MSU go back to running like Spartan Stadium's on fire to re-establish it's offensive identity. Given the decided weight advantage on our side of the line and the fact that Le'Veon Bell is bigger than every single linebacker wearing a Central Michigan uniform, I expect us to rack up lots of rushing yards and touchdowns.

Advantage: MSU(by quite a bit)

CMU Passing Offense vs MSU Passing Defense

MSU is currently ranked 15th in Total Passing Efficiency Defense and CMU is ranked 62nd in Passing Offense. Although these numbers are unnaturally low since FAU didn't even generate 50 yards of offense in the 44-0 pasting of two very long weeks ago. Yesterday, Mike from The Chip Report indicated that Radcliff has had trouble with his reads and is not getting the ball downfield well.

For as unhealthy as our offense has been the defense has been thus far quite lucky in their injuries. Look for MSU to play their usual bend, don't break defense against Central. Give up yardage between the 20s, but not a lot of points. Unless Central comes out and gets the jump on us, expect Radcliff to be playing from behind most of the game, that means risky throws and interceptions. Need evidence? Watch the Notre Dame game from six days ago.

Advantage: MSU

CMU Rushing Offense vs MSU Rushing Defense

Tim Phillips will be replacing Zurlon Tipton. At 5'5" and 162 lbs, I think the biggest problem for MSU's defense will be seeing Phillips. I remember a few years ago when Jerry Seymour ran all over MSU because he was little and MSU had problems with that. That was a much crappier defense coached by Cowboys and vicious facepalms.

Our run Defense is pretty stout and just held two very talened running backs to a reasonable amount of yardage in a game Notre Dame was trying to salt away. This should be a good opportunity for MSU's linebackers to get an opportunity playing a scatback that can move.

Advantage: MSU

Intangibles

What do you say about a MAC team that has come in and cleaned your clock three times in your house. God likes them or at least prefers them to you when forced to pick. Or Satan...?

Advantage: CMU

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5 Burning Questions

We're taking the five key things series started last week and weaving it in with the Devil's Advocate series we did last year. Co-Authoring this segment will be my partner in crime Ty from the Lions in Winter. Check out his blogified Ndamukong madness here.

5 Burning Questions

1.) How does MSU set to work gelling it's O-Line this upcoming week against Central?

Last week I neglected this question in our five burning questions because I was honestly sick of talking about it. That said, it's definitely news this week as our Offensive Line continues to get thinner. New starters Fou Fonoti and Travis Jackson figure to see plenty of playing time and will be in for as many reps as possible before the tipping point of injury to positive reps swings towards injury. If we struggle to move the ball, expect to see this group in the whole game.

At this point, the only way the offensive line will gel is with the addition of Xanthan Gum, a biopolymer used as a thickening agent in salad dressings and avant-garde molecular gastronomy. Whether the O-line plays like the motley crew of ragtag backup position-switchers they are or the 1998 Denver Broncos, I would want the starters to go the distance. At this point, will another injury make much difference? The Spartans need as much cohesion as they can muster heading into Columbus.

2.) How does Dan Roushar improve for his questionable playcalling in the Notre Dame game and re-establish the MSU offensive identity this week while preparing for Ohio State?

Pound, Green, Pound. The last game Michigan State lost when outrushing it's opponent was against Minnesota in 2009. That is Dantonio's offensive philosophy, keep CHIPping the rock. See what I did there?!? Like it or not, this is how our team plays football, we run to set up the pass. Expect lots of running for exactly that purpose.

I am aghast at the deftness of your pun, and the degree to which we agree. The Spartans have to assert their dominance at the point of attack, and reestablish Baker and Bell as forces to be reckoned with.

3.) Dion Sims moved from being a backup to an OR in this week's depth chart. Is this the beginning of the Dion Sims era?

I think so. Sims is not the strongest pass blocker, otherwise at 6'5" and 280 he might be one of the dudes sliding over to a tackle spot. Sims has absolutely freakish ability. At the beginning of his recruitment he was listed as a WR and has just continued to gain weight while retaining most of his speed. He is a redshirt sophmore after sitting out last year due to some legal issues. While he is not a member of the "Glenn Winston League of Extraordinary Dumbasses" he committed a crime and was punished for it. Until his passblocking improves, do not expect him to be an every down TE but expect to see plenty of him this weekend.

This is exactly the situation you want to deploy Sims in. Against an opponent who won’t kill you with the blitz, who doesn’t have anyone who can hope to match up with Sims physically, you get all the upside of sending him out there to catch passes without all the downside of exposing Captain Kirk to the Klingon hordes.

4.) If Spartan Stadium isn't Dan Enos's Little Big Horn, it's a trailhead en route. If Enos gets the ziggy at any point before 2012 spring ball, do the Spartans bring him back to solidify their offensive coaching staff—and redouble Detroit PSL recruiting efforts?

This seems unlikely to me. I don't see Dantonio kicking out any of the members of our current offensive staff and I don't think any are on the hot track out of here, with apologies to Staten maybe. It seems unlikely that he'd take over on the defensive side of the ball. So it's not that we don't want him, it's that I don't know if we have room for him.

Secondly, this would not be Enos' first time trying to rejoin Dantonio after a failed attempt to move on to bigger and better things. Enos was the running back's coach here in 2006 in the final year of John L Smith, after leaving Dantonio in Cincinnati. He was the only member of staff retained when Dantonio came in late 2006. While he was fantastic at recruiting the PSL, I don't know if you bump a current staff member to make room for someone who's left you, twice.

Sometimes, things make too much sense not to happen. Dan Enos starts taking a lot of heat the same week Dan Roushar does, and I have a hard time not connecting the dots. Obviously, last week would have to be the beginning of a strongly negative trend for Roushar to be axed, and I hope and pray that doesn’t happen. But, if it does, I think the Spartans miss Enos more than they expected—and if he’s free and they have an opening, why not? I’d just hope he wouldn’t become our very own Mike DeBord.

5.) How likely is it that we see a repeat of 2009?

Unlikely. CMU is down this year and so is MSU a bit. We lost the 2009 game because LeFevour was an excellent QB, Antonio Brown is playing for the Steelers now and their running back was pretty darn good too. Additionally, Cousins and Nichol were platooning in at QB and it kept MSU's offense from establishing a rhythm. We couldn't put them away, they converted an onside kick AND then got two tries to make a 47 and then a 42 yarder. There were several moments that CMU had to convert perfectly and they did and won. They would need that game and more this year and I don't think they have it in them.

I have pinned that loss on the Spartans trying to defend Butch Jones’s ‘Diet Spread n’Shred’ with the a base 4-3. I theorized at the time that Narduzzi didn’t want to show his RichRod-stopping cards. The Spartans let CMU have six yards whenever they wanted it, and they paid for it in the end. Even with all that, AND the silly Quarterback by Committee, it STILL took that crazy chain of events. I can’t see Dantonio risking a slide to 2-2 this time around.

Jim's Prediction:MSU 28 CMU 10

Ty’s Prediction: MSU 33 CMU 17 (one of the MSU scores is defensive. Don’t ask why)

Meet the New Boss, Same as the Old Boss?

Last year after pitching a perfect game against Wisconsin and a damn fine game against Michigan in the absence of Mark Dantonio, Don Treadwell was offered and accepted a position at the University of Miami(Not Lil' Luke Incorporated). Dantonio continued his family approach and bumped Roushar up to Offensive Coordinator. This isn't Roushar's first rodeo in the OC role, nor his second or third, in fact it's his fifth turn in the role.

The History:

2004 - Illinois
1998-2002 - Northern Illinois
1994 - Ball State
1989-1992 - Butler

Luckily, the power of the internets reaches securely back to 2004. Let's take a look at that 2004 Illinois Offense and see how they did.

Scoring Offense 9th of 11.
Passing Offense 7th of 11.
Rushing Offense 6th of 11.
Total Offense 6th of 11.

Percentage of Plays Passing: 46.6%
Percentage of Plays Rushing: 53.4%


2010 MSU Percentages

Percentage of Plays Passing: 45.7%
Percentage of Plays Rushing: 54.3%

Our hero Kirk Cousins said it best:

"I’m not sure me or anybody else on our offense will be able to tell a big difference," Cousins said. "The system, the philosophy, really comes from (head) coach (Mark) Dantonio, and while there are some subtle changes, a few different formations and plays, we’re still going to try and run the ball first and be able to throw when we want -- or have to throw."

If you wanted to be completely overwrought about the whole thing, you could say the subtle change is that out of 800 plays we'll end up throwing the ball one more time per game if we used Roushar's 2004 percentages.

Outside of run/pass percentage balance an article from Joe Rexrode of the Lansing State Journal indicates the difference might not be in the plays but the sequencing:

"I think what you try and do is get a high completion percentage," said Roushar, who previously served as offensive coordinator at Illinois, Butler, Ball State and Northern Illinois. "You know, move the football on early downs and keep the chains short. You get into third-and-2s, third-and-3s, very manageable, stay out of the third-and-longs. So we're putting a high premium on completions on early downs when we do throw it, whether it be play-action or three-step (drops) or whatever we're doing. And then at the same time, trying to find those places we can take shots down the field."

Honestly, the offense's play on Friday night would seem to support this. We looked to establish the run, kill them in playaction and run the occasional 5 WR set just to keep people off-balance. I liked in 2007 and 2008 that we ran lots of end arounds and I'm hoping that after the Keshawn Martin end-around on Friday that we see lots of that this year.

While I'm sure you wouldn't find an OC alive who says that his focus is to get us into 2nd and 7, it's interesting to hear him put a premium on getting us into 3rd and 2 by using more passing on first down. Is the new boss the same as the old boss? It's certainly too early to tell empirically. I think a more apt comparison is Coke and Pepsi, they are essentially the same thing, but with just tiny little differences. I think we'll see as the season progresses.