Michigan State: A Power Running Team?

So yesterday I got all "get off my lawn you damned whippersnappers" about the lack of identity within the Michigan State offense. I recanted a better time in 2007 when MSU converted all of it's third downs by running the ball down the opposition's throat. It seems unfair to level this criticism without some research to back it up.

I tried to think of a question that would provide a strong indicator to what the "identity" of an offense is and landed on this one. Since 2007, on 3rd and 4th down with 3 or fewer yards to go, what type of play does Michigan State run and how often is it successful? If you believe in your running game, I think this is a makeable down and distance. If you are skittish about your running game, I think this you'll see a lot of passing.

The stats were constructed taking the results of plays on 3rd and 4th down with 3 or less to go. They were only taken in Big Ten games to try and remove some of the fluff in non-conference games. Results are tabulated using ESPN play-by-play. Note: Discovered cfbstats about seven seconds ago, will probably use that in the future. The stars indicate a missing game. In 2007 it was Indiana, in 2008 it was Wisconsin, in 2009 it was Minnesota. An obvious issue is small sample size. 20 or 30 of something over 8 games is not really a lot. Second issue is that we've played the meat of our schedule in 2011 so there will be some fluff going forward or at least, I hope so.



So what does this tell us?

- First, I was half right about 2007. When we ran we converted 80 percent of our third and shorts in 2007, but we didn't run as often as I remembered. We only ran 45 percent of the time on 3rd and short in 2007 we just happened to be successful nearly every time.

- Next, MSU is having it's worst 3rd down rushing conversion percentage of the Mark Dantonio era in 2011. Again, this might be because we've played the meat of our schedule and things should only get easier from here. Also, our offensive line is not bad, but not the manbeasts we were expecting by year 5. With the exception of 2009 we haven't had a year below 58 percent. This year we're at 33 percent.

- I think the sheer number of 3rd and shorts is important too. In 2007 MSU had 33 3rd and shorts, in 2010 it was 29, in 2008 it was 26 and 2011 is projecting 26, in 2009 we had 16.

In these situations, we've run more than passed in 2008, 2009 and 2010. In 2007 we passed more than ran. In 2011, we have yet to play three spread teams with weak rushing defenses and Iowa, who's down, but still Iowa. I suspect the balance will end up at the end of the Big Ten season slightly in favor of rushing over passing.

So in this particular metric is Michigan State a power running team at least in terms of play selection? For the last three years and projected over this year, yes, anywhere from marginally (2008 and 2011) to definitely (2009 and 2010). The question might instead be after 2007's third and short success on third down, should we be?

Anyway, leave comments or areas for improved study below, stats was a long time and many hoppy beverages ago